**Forecast models and real-time observations have converged on a minimum temperature of 21°C for Shanghai on September 16, 2026, producing the near-certain market-implied outcome.** Multiple numerical weather prediction runs, including GFS guidance, consistently project overnight lows in the 21–23°C range under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light northeasterly flow and moderate humidity. This aligns with recent diurnal trends, where daytime maxima near 29–30°C give way to gradual radiative cooling after sunset without significant frontal passages or moisture surges. The 99.5% consensus reflects traders’ assessment of high model agreement and limited variability in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted increase in cloud cover, stronger onshore flow, or localized station-specific measurement differences that push the official minimum below 21°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月16日上海最低气温？
9月16日上海最低气温？
21°C 99.6%
20°C <1%
19°C <1%
17°C或以下 <1%
$14,299 交易量
$14,299 交易量
2026-09-16
17°C或以下
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C或更高
<1%
21°C 99.6%
20°C <1%
19°C <1%
17°C或以下 <1%
$14,299 交易量
$14,299 交易量
2026-09-16
17°C或以下
$130 交易量
<1%
18°C
$144 交易量
<1%
19°C
$421 交易量
<1%
20°C
$160 交易量
1%
21°C
$930 交易量
100%
22°C
$2,601 交易量
<1%
23°C
$7,290 交易量
<1%
24°C
$1,233 交易量
<1%
25°C
$130 交易量
<1%
26°C
$130 交易量
<1%
27°C或更高
$1,130 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and real-time observations have converged on a minimum temperature of 21°C for Shanghai on September 16, 2026, producing the near-certain market-implied outcome.** Multiple numerical weather prediction runs, including GFS guidance, consistently project overnight lows in the 21–23°C range under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light northeasterly flow and moderate humidity. This aligns with recent diurnal trends, where daytime maxima near 29–30°C give way to gradual radiative cooling after sunset without significant frontal passages or moisture surges. The 99.5% consensus reflects traders’ assessment of high model agreement and limited variability in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted increase in cloud cover, stronger onshore flow, or localized station-specific measurement differences that push the official minimum below 21°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$14,299结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and real-time observations have converged on a minimum temperature of 21°C for Shanghai on September 16, 2026, producing the near-certain market-implied outcome.** Multiple numerical weather prediction runs, including GFS guidance, consistently project overnight lows in the 21–23°C range under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light northeasterly flow and moderate humidity. This aligns with recent diurnal trends, where daytime maxima near 29–30°C give way to gradual radiative cooling after sunset without significant frontal passages or moisture surges. The 99.5% consensus reflects traders’ assessment of high model agreement and limited variability in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted increase in cloud cover, stronger onshore flow, or localized station-specific measurement differences that push the official minimum below 21°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$14,299结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Forecast models and real-time observations have converged on a minimum temperature of 21°C for Shanghai on September 16, 2026, producing the near-certain market-implied outcome.** Multiple numerical weather prediction runs, including GFS guidance, consistently project overnight lows in the 21–23°C range under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light northeasterly flow and moderate humidity. This aligns with recent diurnal trends, where daytime maxima near 29–30°C give way to gradual radiative cooling after sunset without significant frontal passages or moisture surges. The 99.5% consensus reflects traders’ assessment of high model agreement and limited variability in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted increase in cloud cover, stronger onshore flow, or localized station-specific measurement differences that push the official minimum below 21°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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