Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering around 13°C for Ankara's highest temperature at Esenboğa International Airport on April 5, aligning closely with Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance amid a low-pressure trough ushering cooler northerly flows and widespread cloud cover. This setup caps daytime heating below April climatological highs of 16–17°C, with 14°C edging ahead due to slight model biases toward partial afternoon clearing allowing modest insolation. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud persistence—clearer scenarios favor 15–16°C, while thicker overcast keeps peaks at 12–13°C. New model runs every 12 hours and MGM updates through April 4 could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on April 5?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 5?
14°C 30%
13°C 22%
15°C 18%
16°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
2%
12°C
9%
13°C
22%
14°C
30%
15°C
18%
16°C
14%
17°C or higher
9%
14°C 30%
13°C 22%
15°C 18%
16°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
7°C or below
$449 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$734 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$896 Vol.
1%
10°C
$207 Vol.
2%
11°C
$237 Vol.
2%
12°C
$213 Vol.
9%
13°C
$638 Vol.
22%
14°C
$252 Vol.
30%
15°C
$323 Vol.
18%
16°C
$310 Vol.
14%
17°C or higher
$480 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering around 13°C for Ankara's highest temperature at Esenboğa International Airport on April 5, aligning closely with Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance amid a low-pressure trough ushering cooler northerly flows and widespread cloud cover. This setup caps daytime heating below April climatological highs of 16–17°C, with 14°C edging ahead due to slight model biases toward partial afternoon clearing allowing modest insolation. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud persistence—clearer scenarios favor 15–16°C, while thicker overcast keeps peaks at 12–13°C. New model runs every 12 hours and MGM updates through April 4 could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$4,739End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering around 13°C for Ankara's highest temperature at Esenboğa International Airport on April 5, aligning closely with Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance amid a low-pressure trough ushering cooler northerly flows and widespread cloud cover. This setup caps daytime heating below April climatological highs of 16–17°C, with 14°C edging ahead due to slight model biases toward partial afternoon clearing allowing modest insolation. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud persistence—clearer scenarios favor 15–16°C, while thicker overcast keeps peaks at 12–13°C. New model runs every 12 hours and MGM updates through April 4 could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,739End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering around 13°C for Ankara's highest temperature at Esenboğa International Airport on April 5, aligning closely with Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance amid a low-pressure trough ushering cooler northerly flows and widespread cloud cover. This setup caps daytime heating below April climatological highs of 16–17°C, with 14°C edging ahead due to slight model biases toward partial afternoon clearing allowing modest insolation. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud persistence—clearer scenarios favor 15–16°C, while thicker overcast keeps peaks at 12–13°C. New model runs every 12 hours and MGM updates through April 4 could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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