Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a high of 74°F or higher at Chicago O'Hare on April 13, reflecting strong alignment across National Weather Service guidance and major forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, which project peaks in the mid-to-upper 70s°F amid a developing upper-level ridge over the central U.S. This warmth stems from southerly flow advecting unseasonably mild air masses northward, following recent highs in the 50s°F, with temperatures well above the 58°F climatological normal. Model runs updated within the last 24 hours show tight spreads in 850 hPa temperatures and surface dewpoints supporting peak heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud cover from a passing shortwave trough or delayed boundary layer mixing, though probabilities remain low; watch 12Z model suite on April 12 for refinements ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on April 13?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 13?
74°F or higher 93%
72-73°F 5.3%
70-71°F 1.0%
68-69°F <1%
$41,461 Vol.
$41,461 Vol.
Apr 13, 2026
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
5%
74°F or higher
93%
74°F or higher 93%
72-73°F 5.3%
70-71°F 1.0%
68-69°F <1%
$41,461 Vol.
$41,461 Vol.
Apr 13, 2026
55°F or below
$6,220 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$2,670 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$3,044 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$3,060 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$2,807 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$2,537 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$2,190 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$4,573 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$5,187 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$3,187 Vol.
5%
74°F or higher
$5,990 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a high of 74°F or higher at Chicago O'Hare on April 13, reflecting strong alignment across National Weather Service guidance and major forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, which project peaks in the mid-to-upper 70s°F amid a developing upper-level ridge over the central U.S. This warmth stems from southerly flow advecting unseasonably mild air masses northward, following recent highs in the 50s°F, with temperatures well above the 58°F climatological normal. Model runs updated within the last 24 hours show tight spreads in 850 hPa temperatures and surface dewpoints supporting peak heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud cover from a passing shortwave trough or delayed boundary layer mixing, though probabilities remain low; watch 12Z model suite on April 12 for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$41,461End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a high of 74°F or higher at Chicago O'Hare on April 13, reflecting strong alignment across National Weather Service guidance and major forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, which project peaks in the mid-to-upper 70s°F amid a developing upper-level ridge over the central U.S. This warmth stems from southerly flow advecting unseasonably mild air masses northward, following recent highs in the 50s°F, with temperatures well above the 58°F climatological normal. Model runs updated within the last 24 hours show tight spreads in 850 hPa temperatures and surface dewpoints supporting peak heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud cover from a passing shortwave trough or delayed boundary layer mixing, though probabilities remain low; watch 12Z model suite on April 12 for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$41,461End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a high of 74°F or higher at Chicago O'Hare on April 13, reflecting strong alignment across National Weather Service guidance and major forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, which project peaks in the mid-to-upper 70s°F amid a developing upper-level ridge over the central U.S. This warmth stems from southerly flow advecting unseasonably mild air masses northward, following recent highs in the 50s°F, with temperatures well above the 58°F climatological normal. Model runs updated within the last 24 hours show tight spreads in 850 hPa temperatures and surface dewpoints supporting peak heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud cover from a passing shortwave trough or delayed boundary layer mixing, though probabilities remain low; watch 12Z model suite on April 12 for refinements ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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