Recent ensemble forecasts from European models, including runs aligning with observed trends through mid-June 2026, cluster the expected maximum temperature in Milan around 33–35°C on June 20, directly supporting the market’s leading 34°C (42.5%) and 35°C (28.5%) outcomes. Following an early-June heatwave that delivered peaks near 35–36°C across the Po Valley under strong subtropical ridging, current guidance indicates moderating high pressure with slightly increased moisture and possible afternoon convection, limiting further intensification. Milan’s climatological June average high of 26–28°C provides baseline context, yet persistent above-average 500 hPa heights and urban heat retention sustain the elevated range. Updated model cycles and observational verification over the next 48 hours will refine probabilities ahead of the June 20 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on June 20?
Highest temperature in Milan on June 20?
34°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$45,178 Vol.
$45,178 Vol.
Jun 20, 2026
31°C or below
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
Yes
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
No
34°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$45,178 Vol.
$45,178 Vol.
Jun 20, 2026
31°C or below
$412 Vol.
No
32°C
$3,673 Vol.
No
33°C
$9,635 Vol.
No
34°C
$9,518 Vol.
Yes
35°C
$9,318 Vol.
No
36°C
$5,553 Vol.
No
37°C
$4,242 Vol.
No
38°C
$1,373 Vol.
No
39°C
$571 Vol.
No
40°C
$527 Vol.
No
41°C or higher
$358 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European models, including runs aligning with observed trends through mid-June 2026, cluster the expected maximum temperature in Milan around 33–35°C on June 20, directly supporting the market’s leading 34°C (42.5%) and 35°C (28.5%) outcomes. Following an early-June heatwave that delivered peaks near 35–36°C across the Po Valley under strong subtropical ridging, current guidance indicates moderating high pressure with slightly increased moisture and possible afternoon convection, limiting further intensification. Milan’s climatological June average high of 26–28°C provides baseline context, yet persistent above-average 500 hPa heights and urban heat retention sustain the elevated range. Updated model cycles and observational verification over the next 48 hours will refine probabilities ahead of the June 20 resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 18, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$45,178End Date
Jun 20, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European models, including runs aligning with observed trends through mid-June 2026, cluster the expected maximum temperature in Milan around 33–35°C on June 20, directly supporting the market’s leading 34°C (42.5%) and 35°C (28.5%) outcomes. Following an early-June heatwave that delivered peaks near 35–36°C across the Po Valley under strong subtropical ridging, current guidance indicates moderating high pressure with slightly increased moisture and possible afternoon convection, limiting further intensification. Milan’s climatological June average high of 26–28°C provides baseline context, yet persistent above-average 500 hPa heights and urban heat retention sustain the elevated range. Updated model cycles and observational verification over the next 48 hours will refine probabilities ahead of the June 20 resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$45,178End Date
Jun 20, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from European models, including runs aligning with observed trends through mid-June 2026, cluster the expected maximum temperature in Milan around 33–35°C on June 20, directly supporting the market’s leading 34°C (42.5%) and 35°C (28.5%) outcomes. Following an early-June heatwave that delivered peaks near 35–36°C across the Po Valley under strong subtropical ridging, current guidance indicates moderating high pressure with slightly increased moisture and possible afternoon convection, limiting further intensification. Milan’s climatological June average high of 26–28°C provides baseline context, yet persistent above-average 500 hPa heights and urban heat retention sustain the elevated range. Updated model cycles and observational verification over the next 48 hours will refine probabilities ahead of the June 20 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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