Forecast models from Brazilian meteorological agencies and international ensembles currently favor a maximum near 22°C for São Paulo on August 25 under stable winter high-pressure conditions typical of the dry season. Subtle differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal approach from the south create the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 21–23°C. Official INMET station readings incorporate urban heat-island effects and precise siting criteria that traders weigh against ensemble spreads, which remain modest this far into the short-range window. With resolution imminent, updates from the next model runs will likely sharpen or shift the narrow probability distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 25?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 25?
22°C 33%
23°C 25%
21°C 18%
20°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
18°C or below
2%
19°C
3%
20°C
9%
21°C
18%
22°C
33%
23°C
25%
24°C
5%
25°C
5%
26°C
3%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
2%
22°C 33%
23°C 25%
21°C 18%
20°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
18°C or below
$23 Vol.
2%
19°C
$118 Vol.
3%
20°C
$66 Vol.
9%
21°C
$208 Vol.
18%
22°C
$46 Vol.
33%
23°C
$170 Vol.
25%
24°C
$249 Vol.
5%
25°C
$56 Vol.
5%
26°C
$0 Vol.
3%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$31 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from Brazilian meteorological agencies and international ensembles currently favor a maximum near 22°C for São Paulo on August 25 under stable winter high-pressure conditions typical of the dry season. Subtle differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal approach from the south create the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 21–23°C. Official INMET station readings incorporate urban heat-island effects and precise siting criteria that traders weigh against ensemble spreads, which remain modest this far into the short-range window. With resolution imminent, updates from the next model runs will likely sharpen or shift the narrow probability distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$968End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from Brazilian meteorological agencies and international ensembles currently favor a maximum near 22°C for São Paulo on August 25 under stable winter high-pressure conditions typical of the dry season. Subtle differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal approach from the south create the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 21–23°C. Official INMET station readings incorporate urban heat-island effects and precise siting criteria that traders weigh against ensemble spreads, which remain modest this far into the short-range window. With resolution imminent, updates from the next model runs will likely sharpen or shift the narrow probability distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$968End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from Brazilian meteorological agencies and international ensembles currently favor a maximum near 22°C for São Paulo on August 25 under stable winter high-pressure conditions typical of the dry season. Subtle differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal approach from the south create the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 21–23°C. Official INMET station readings incorporate urban heat-island effects and precise siting criteria that traders weigh against ensemble spreads, which remain modest this far into the short-range window. With resolution imminent, updates from the next model runs will likely sharpen or shift the narrow probability distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions