Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs valid as of August 24, indicate the overnight minimum in Cape Town on August 26 will likely fall between 10–13°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds, consistent with typical late-winter radiative cooling in the region’s Mediterranean climate. This positions the 10°C, 11°C, and 12°C buckets as central to trader consensus, while the elevated 44.5% implied probability on 8°C or below reflects historical August variability (recent lows reached 5–7°C) and potential for stronger cooling if high pressure strengthens or cloud cover decreases. Conversely, the 29.5% on 18°C or higher captures upside risk from warmer advection or increased cloudiness limiting overnight drops. Updated model guidance ahead of the 26th will be the key catalyst for shifts in these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 26?
18°C or higher 59%
13°C 48%
8°C or below 45%
10°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
8°C or below
45%
9°C
24%
10°C
29%
11°C
27%
12°C
25%
13°C
48%
14°C
19%
15°C
2%
16°C
15%
17°C
15%
18°C or higher
59%
18°C or higher 59%
13°C 48%
8°C or below 45%
10°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
45%
9°C
$0 Vol.
24%
10°C
$0 Vol.
29%
11°C
$0 Vol.
27%
12°C
$0 Vol.
25%
13°C
$0 Vol.
48%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$0 Vol.
15%
17°C
$0 Vol.
15%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs valid as of August 24, indicate the overnight minimum in Cape Town on August 26 will likely fall between 10–13°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds, consistent with typical late-winter radiative cooling in the region’s Mediterranean climate. This positions the 10°C, 11°C, and 12°C buckets as central to trader consensus, while the elevated 44.5% implied probability on 8°C or below reflects historical August variability (recent lows reached 5–7°C) and potential for stronger cooling if high pressure strengthens or cloud cover decreases. Conversely, the 29.5% on 18°C or higher captures upside risk from warmer advection or increased cloudiness limiting overnight drops. Updated model guidance ahead of the 26th will be the key catalyst for shifts in these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs valid as of August 24, indicate the overnight minimum in Cape Town on August 26 will likely fall between 10–13°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds, consistent with typical late-winter radiative cooling in the region’s Mediterranean climate. This positions the 10°C, 11°C, and 12°C buckets as central to trader consensus, while the elevated 44.5% implied probability on 8°C or below reflects historical August variability (recent lows reached 5–7°C) and potential for stronger cooling if high pressure strengthens or cloud cover decreases. Conversely, the 29.5% on 18°C or higher captures upside risk from warmer advection or increased cloudiness limiting overnight drops. Updated model guidance ahead of the 26th will be the key catalyst for shifts in these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs valid as of August 24, indicate the overnight minimum in Cape Town on August 26 will likely fall between 10–13°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds, consistent with typical late-winter radiative cooling in the region’s Mediterranean climate. This positions the 10°C, 11°C, and 12°C buckets as central to trader consensus, while the elevated 44.5% implied probability on 8°C or below reflects historical August variability (recent lows reached 5–7°C) and potential for stronger cooling if high pressure strengthens or cloud cover decreases. Conversely, the 29.5% on 18°C or higher captures upside risk from warmer advection or increased cloudiness limiting overnight drops. Updated model guidance ahead of the 26th will be the key catalyst for shifts in these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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