The market's decisive 100% implied probability on 28°C reflects official minimum temperature readings from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming this exact value for May 24. Late-May climatology in the region, driven by strengthening southerly flow and subtropical high pressure, typically produces nighttime lows in the 26–29°C range, with 28°C falling squarely within the observed historical distribution and recent model consensus. No significant cold advection or cloud-cover anomalies altered the diurnal cycle. Resolution hinges on the Observatory’s finalized 24-hour minimum at the reference station; only an unreported data revision or station-specific anomaly would shift the outcome, both of which remain statistically improbable given the stability of the measurement network.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 24?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 24?
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$17,327 Vol.
$17,327 Vol.
May 24, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$17,327 Vol.
$17,327 Vol.
May 24, 2026
21°C or below
$702 Vol.
No
22°C
$603 Vol.
No
23°C
$886 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,715 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,267 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,655 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,121 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,998 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$2,596 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,052 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$733 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's decisive 100% implied probability on 28°C reflects official minimum temperature readings from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming this exact value for May 24. Late-May climatology in the region, driven by strengthening southerly flow and subtropical high pressure, typically produces nighttime lows in the 26–29°C range, with 28°C falling squarely within the observed historical distribution and recent model consensus. No significant cold advection or cloud-cover anomalies altered the diurnal cycle. Resolution hinges on the Observatory’s finalized 24-hour minimum at the reference station; only an unreported data revision or station-specific anomaly would shift the outcome, both of which remain statistically improbable given the stability of the measurement network.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$17,327End Date
May 24, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's decisive 100% implied probability on 28°C reflects official minimum temperature readings from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming this exact value for May 24. Late-May climatology in the region, driven by strengthening southerly flow and subtropical high pressure, typically produces nighttime lows in the 26–29°C range, with 28°C falling squarely within the observed historical distribution and recent model consensus. No significant cold advection or cloud-cover anomalies altered the diurnal cycle. Resolution hinges on the Observatory’s finalized 24-hour minimum at the reference station; only an unreported data revision or station-specific anomaly would shift the outcome, both of which remain statistically improbable given the stability of the measurement network.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17,327End Date
May 24, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The market's decisive 100% implied probability on 28°C reflects official minimum temperature readings from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming this exact value for May 24. Late-May climatology in the region, driven by strengthening southerly flow and subtropical high pressure, typically produces nighttime lows in the 26–29°C range, with 28°C falling squarely within the observed historical distribution and recent model consensus. No significant cold advection or cloud-cover anomalies altered the diurnal cycle. Resolution hinges on the Observatory’s finalized 24-hour minimum at the reference station; only an unreported data revision or station-specific anomaly would shift the outcome, both of which remain statistically improbable given the stability of the measurement network.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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