President Trump's near-daily public insults on Truth Social and in speeches have driven Yes odds to 92% for April 16 and 17, and 82-87% through April 30, capturing trader consensus on his reliably combative style backed by skin-in-the-game wagers totaling over $137,000. The freshest catalyst is his April 12-13 barrage against Pope Leo XIV, labeling the pontiff "too liberal" and "weak on crime" alongside a now-deleted AI image portraying himself as Jesus, prompting Catholic backlash and the Pope's April 16 address decrying global "tyrants." Earlier April jabs at French President Macron's marriage and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries as "low IQ individual" reinforce the pattern, with an interview on Fox Business today potentially amplifying rhetoric amid Iran Strait tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$139,646 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
April 16
94%
April 17
92%
April 18
83%
April 19
82%
April 20
75%
April 21
82%
April 22
84%
April 23
84%
April 24
82%
April 25
84%
April 26
78%
April 27
80%
April 28
76%
April 29
80%
April 30
82%
$139,646 Vol.
April 16
$5,733 Vol.
94%
April 17
$9,163 Vol.
92%
April 18
$4,861 Vol.
83%
April 19
$434 Vol.
82%
April 20
$1,169 Vol.
75%
April 21
$6,081 Vol.
82%
April 22
$3,244 Vol.
84%
April 23
$7,692 Vol.
84%
April 24
$5,872 Vol.
82%
April 25
$4,998 Vol.
84%
April 26
$2,220 Vol.
78%
April 27
$5,907 Vol.
80%
April 28
$394 Vol.
76%
April 29
$3,608 Vol.
80%
April 30
$441 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's near-daily public insults on Truth Social and in speeches have driven Yes odds to 92% for April 16 and 17, and 82-87% through April 30, capturing trader consensus on his reliably combative style backed by skin-in-the-game wagers totaling over $137,000. The freshest catalyst is his April 12-13 barrage against Pope Leo XIV, labeling the pontiff "too liberal" and "weak on crime" alongside a now-deleted AI image portraying himself as Jesus, prompting Catholic backlash and the Pope's April 16 address decrying global "tyrants." Earlier April jabs at French President Macron's marriage and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries as "low IQ individual" reinforce the pattern, with an interview on Fox Business today potentially amplifying rhetoric amid Iran Strait tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 10, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$139,646End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's near-daily public insults on Truth Social and in speeches have driven Yes odds to 92% for April 16 and 17, and 82-87% through April 30, capturing trader consensus on his reliably combative style backed by skin-in-the-game wagers totaling over $137,000. The freshest catalyst is his April 12-13 barrage against Pope Leo XIV, labeling the pontiff "too liberal" and "weak on crime" alongside a now-deleted AI image portraying himself as Jesus, prompting Catholic backlash and the Pope's April 16 address decrying global "tyrants." Earlier April jabs at French President Macron's marriage and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries as "low IQ individual" reinforce the pattern, with an interview on Fox Business today potentially amplifying rhetoric amid Iran Strait tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$139,646End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
President Trump's near-daily public insults on Truth Social and in speeches have driven Yes odds to 92% for April 16 and 17, and 82-87% through April 30, capturing trader consensus on his reliably combative style backed by skin-in-the-game wagers totaling over $137,000. The freshest catalyst is his April 12-13 barrage against Pope Leo XIV, labeling the pontiff "too liberal" and "weak on crime" alongside a now-deleted AI image portraying himself as Jesus, prompting Catholic backlash and the Pope's April 16 address decrying global "tyrants." Earlier April jabs at French President Macron's marriage and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries as "low IQ individual" reinforce the pattern, with an interview on Fox Business today potentially amplifying rhetoric amid Iran Strait tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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