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icon for Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

icon for Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

2% chance
Polymarket

$1,843,570 Vol.

2% chance
Polymarket

$1,843,570 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.1% for "No" on Xi Jinping departing as paramount leader—General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, president, and Central Military Commission chairman—by June 30, driven by his unchallenged control amid ongoing anti-corruption purges targeting top generals in January-March 2026, interpreted as power consolidation rather than weakness. Recent public appearances, including a diplomatic call with Saudi Arabia's crown prince on April 20 and book presentations on April 23, dispel health rumors from March's Two Sessions, where leadership reshuffles reaffirmed his "core" status ahead of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). Structural barriers like Politburo loyalty and no successor signals make removal improbable short-term; only a sudden health crisis, elite coup, or economic meltdown could shift odds, though none appear imminent.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,843,570
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.1% for "No" on Xi Jinping departing as paramount leader—General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, president, and Central Military Commission chairman—by June 30, driven by his unchallenged control amid ongoing anti-corruption purges targeting top generals in January-March 2026, interpreted as power consolidation rather than weakness. Recent public appearances, including a diplomatic call with Saudi Arabia's crown prince on April 20 and book presentations on April 23, dispel health rumors from March's Two Sessions, where leadership reshuffles reaffirmed his "core" status ahead of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). Structural barriers like Politburo loyalty and no successor signals make removal improbable short-term; only a sudden health crisis, elite coup, or economic meltdown could shift odds, though none appear imminent.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,843,570
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Xi Jinping out by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 2% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 2¢, the market collectively assigns a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Xi Jinping out by June 30?" has generated $1.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 17, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Xi Jinping out by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Xi Jinping out by June 30?" is 2% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Xi Jinping out by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.