Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on April 11 at the Capital International Airport reaching 24°C or below, driven by official observations and forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and Beijing meteorological station projecting a daytime maximum of 22-23°C under partly cloudy skies and northerly winds limiting solar heating. Current surface data confirms morning lows near 9°C and midday readings well under 24°C, aligning with spring climatology where mid-April average highs hover around 20-22°C amid variable jet stream steering. Model consensus from short-range numerical weather prediction supports this cap, with no significant warm air advection. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing late-afternoon convective heating or microscale variations at the airport site, though diurnal cooling now underway as evening sets in makes exceeding 24°C highly improbable; final daily observations expected from CMA by midnight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Beijing on April 11?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 11?
24°C or below 100.0%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$100,565 Vol.
$100,565 Vol.
24°C or below
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
24°C or below 100.0%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$100,565 Vol.
$100,565 Vol.
24°C or below
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 7, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on April 11 at the Capital International Airport reaching 24°C or below, driven by official observations and forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and Beijing meteorological station projecting a daytime maximum of 22-23°C under partly cloudy skies and northerly winds limiting solar heating. Current surface data confirms morning lows near 9°C and midday readings well under 24°C, aligning with spring climatology where mid-April average highs hover around 20-22°C amid variable jet stream steering. Model consensus from short-range numerical weather prediction supports this cap, with no significant warm air advection. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing late-afternoon convective heating or microscale variations at the airport site, though diurnal cooling now underway as evening sets in makes exceeding 24°C highly improbable; final daily observations expected from CMA by midnight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes