Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models project Houston's highest temperature on April 13 at William P. Hobby Airport in the low to mid-80s°F, driving the 84.5% market-implied probability for 80°F or higher as traders price in a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Texas that enhances subsidence warming and southerly winds advecting humid Gulf air. Over the past 48 hours, updated model runs have trended drier with lower precipitation odds (20-40%) than earlier projections, reducing cloud cover risks that could otherwise cap highs below 80°F—explaining the secondary 12.6% on 78-79°F. Current upper-air patterns and recent highs near 80°F on April 11 support this consensus, though isolated showers remain a key uncertainty; watch evening model updates for refinements ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Houston on April 13?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 13?
80°F or higher 85%
78-79°F 10.5%
76-77°F 1.7%
74-75°F 1.4%
$20,562 Vol.
$20,562 Vol.
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
11%
80°F or higher
85%
80°F or higher 85%
78-79°F 10.5%
76-77°F 1.7%
74-75°F 1.4%
$20,562 Vol.
$20,562 Vol.
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
11%
80°F or higher
85%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 9, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models project Houston's highest temperature on April 13 at William P. Hobby Airport in the low to mid-80s°F, driving the 84.5% market-implied probability for 80°F or higher as traders price in a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Texas that enhances subsidence warming and southerly winds advecting humid Gulf air. Over the past 48 hours, updated model runs have trended drier with lower precipitation odds (20-40%) than earlier projections, reducing cloud cover risks that could otherwise cap highs below 80°F—explaining the secondary 12.6% on 78-79°F. Current upper-air patterns and recent highs near 80°F on April 11 support this consensus, though isolated showers remain a key uncertainty; watch evening model updates for refinements ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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