Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of forecast models projecting Chongqing's highest temperature on April 13 between 20–22°C, with 21°C leading at 28.5% implied probability amid expected persistent cloud cover and light rain showers that limit solar insolation and peak heating. Recent China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble outputs from ECMWF and GFS indicate highs around 22°C—cooler than the mid-April climatological average of 23°C—due to a passing low-pressure system bringing overcast skies and slight rain, which has shaved 1–2°C off earlier projections over the past 48 hours. Differentiating factors include exact cloud fraction, shower timing, and boundary layer mixing, introducing ±2°C uncertainty typical of spring frontal variability; new model runs are due tomorrow.