Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 26°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 11, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime peaks around 26°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's resolution site—amid persistent cloud cover and light rain limiting solar insolation. Current observational data shows temperatures hovering in the low-to-mid 20s°C during peak afternoon hours, aligning with typical early-April climatology where average highs range 22–25°C under similar overcast conditions. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting shortwave radiation for a 27°C spike, though low-level winds and moisture influx make this unlikely; final CMA hourly reports will confirm by evening.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 11?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 11?
26°C 100.0%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$185,228 Vol.
$185,228 Vol.
11 avr. 2026
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 100.0%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$185,228 Vol.
$185,228 Vol.
11 avr. 2026
26°C
$18,949 Vol.
100%
27°C
$16,982 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$20,832 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$9,845 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$4,152 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$4,693 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$3,168 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 26°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 11, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime peaks around 26°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's resolution site—amid persistent cloud cover and light rain limiting solar insolation. Current observational data shows temperatures hovering in the low-to-mid 20s°C during peak afternoon hours, aligning with typical early-April climatology where average highs range 22–25°C under similar overcast conditions. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting shortwave radiation for a 27°C spike, though low-level winds and moisture influx make this unlikely; final CMA hourly reports will confirm by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 7, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Volume
$185,228Date de fin
11 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 7, 2026, 1:05 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 26°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 11, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime peaks around 26°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's resolution site—amid persistent cloud cover and light rain limiting solar insolation. Current observational data shows temperatures hovering in the low-to-mid 20s°C during peak afternoon hours, aligning with typical early-April climatology where average highs range 22–25°C under similar overcast conditions. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting shortwave radiation for a 27°C spike, though low-level winds and moisture influx make this unlikely; final CMA hourly reports will confirm by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$185,228Date de fin
11 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 7, 2026, 1:05 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 26°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 11, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime peaks around 26°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's resolution site—amid persistent cloud cover and light rain limiting solar insolation. Current observational data shows temperatures hovering in the low-to-mid 20s°C during peak afternoon hours, aligning with typical early-April climatology where average highs range 22–25°C under similar overcast conditions. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting shortwave radiation for a 27°C spike, though low-level winds and moisture influx make this unlikely; final CMA hourly reports will confirm by evening.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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