Trader consensus on Polymarket's fragmented odds for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 7 reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range weather models, with 19°C or higher at 25.5% capturing potential for transient warming under high-pressure ridging, while 10–16°C outcomes cluster at 16.5% aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble projections of 12–15°C amid persistent northerly airflow and cloud cover from a lingering trough over the Black Sea region. Current observations on April 3 show overcast skies and drizzle with highs near 16°C, but model divergence on trough exit timing and solar insolation introduces spread—cooler if persistent moisture dominates, warmer with clearing skies or downslope föhn effects. Official Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and daily model runs through April 6 will sharpen resolution criteria based on verified airport measurements, against April climatological averages of 15–17°C highs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 7?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 7?
19°C or higher 26%
15°C 25%
12°C 17%
13°C 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
7 avr. 2026
9°C or below
2%
10°C
14%
11°C
1%
12°C
17%
13°C
17%
14°C
17%
15°C
25%
16°C
17%
17°C
14%
18°C
12%
19°C or higher
26%
19°C or higher 26%
15°C 25%
12°C 17%
13°C 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
7 avr. 2026
9°C or below
$172 Vol.
2%
10°C
$171 Vol.
14%
11°C
$304 Vol.
1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
17%
13°C
$0 Vol.
17%
14°C
$0 Vol.
17%
15°C
$0 Vol.
25%
16°C
$0 Vol.
17%
17°C
$0 Vol.
14%
18°C
$0 Vol.
12%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket's fragmented odds for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 7 reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range weather models, with 19°C or higher at 25.5% capturing potential for transient warming under high-pressure ridging, while 10–16°C outcomes cluster at 16.5% aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble projections of 12–15°C amid persistent northerly airflow and cloud cover from a lingering trough over the Black Sea region. Current observations on April 3 show overcast skies and drizzle with highs near 16°C, but model divergence on trough exit timing and solar insolation introduces spread—cooler if persistent moisture dominates, warmer with clearing skies or downslope föhn effects. Official Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and daily model runs through April 6 will sharpen resolution criteria based on verified airport measurements, against April climatological averages of 15–17°C highs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 3, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
Volume
$646Date de fin
7 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 3, 2026, 6:24 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket's fragmented odds for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 7 reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range weather models, with 19°C or higher at 25.5% capturing potential for transient warming under high-pressure ridging, while 10–16°C outcomes cluster at 16.5% aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble projections of 12–15°C amid persistent northerly airflow and cloud cover from a lingering trough over the Black Sea region. Current observations on April 3 show overcast skies and drizzle with highs near 16°C, but model divergence on trough exit timing and solar insolation introduces spread—cooler if persistent moisture dominates, warmer with clearing skies or downslope föhn effects. Official Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and daily model runs through April 6 will sharpen resolution criteria based on verified airport measurements, against April climatological averages of 15–17°C highs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$646Date de fin
7 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 3, 2026, 6:24 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket's fragmented odds for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 7 reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range weather models, with 19°C or higher at 25.5% capturing potential for transient warming under high-pressure ridging, while 10–16°C outcomes cluster at 16.5% aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble projections of 12–15°C amid persistent northerly airflow and cloud cover from a lingering trough over the Black Sea region. Current observations on April 3 show overcast skies and drizzle with highs near 16°C, but model divergence on trough exit timing and solar insolation introduces spread—cooler if persistent moisture dominates, warmer with clearing skies or downslope föhn effects. Official Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and daily model runs through April 6 will sharpen resolution criteria based on verified airport measurements, against April climatological averages of 15–17°C highs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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