Ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models have converged tightly on a 13°C daytime high for Paris on April 3, driving the 93.8% market-implied probability, as persistent overcast skies and northwest winds cap warming under a cool air mass. Morning observations at Paris-Montsouris station started near 10°C with full cloud cover, aligning with limited solar insolation and historical early-April averages around 13.7°C. Trader consensus reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment of low variability in high-resolution AROME runs. Realistic challenges include afternoon cloud breaks allowing extra heating to 14°C or urban heat effects, though official hourly updates through evening will clarify the peak before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Paris on April 3?
Highest temperature in Paris on April 3?
13°C 94.5%
14°C 7%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$172,442 Vol.
$172,442 Vol.
12°C
<1%
13°C
95%
14°C
7%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 94.5%
14°C 7%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$172,442 Vol.
$172,442 Vol.
12°C
<1%
13°C
95%
14°C
7%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models have converged tightly on a 13°C daytime high for Paris on April 3, driving the 93.8% market-implied probability, as persistent overcast skies and northwest winds cap warming under a cool air mass. Morning observations at Paris-Montsouris station started near 10°C with full cloud cover, aligning with limited solar insolation and historical early-April averages around 13.7°C. Trader consensus reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment of low variability in high-resolution AROME runs. Realistic challenges include afternoon cloud breaks allowing extra heating to 14°C or urban heat effects, though official hourly updates through evening will clarify the peak before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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