Trader consensus heavily favors a highest temperature of 14°C in Warsaw at 93.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts centering daytime highs around 14°C amid partly sunny skies and moderate northerly winds. Current observations from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) show a chilly morning start near 4°C, with gradual warming expected under light cloud cover, consistent with AccuWeather's 14°C projection. April climatology supports this, with typical highs of 12–15°C, but ensemble spreads indicate minor uncertainty from 12–16°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected persistent cloudiness capping at 13°C or stronger insolation pushing to 15°C; IMGW updates later today could refine this as observations accumulate.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?
14°C 91%
15°C 10.2%
16°C 1.4%
17°C or higher <1%
$73,349 Vol.
$73,349 Vol.
3 avr. 2026
13°C
<1%
14°C
91%
15°C
10%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
<1%
14°C 91%
15°C 10.2%
16°C 1.4%
17°C or higher <1%
$73,349 Vol.
$73,349 Vol.
3 avr. 2026
13°C
$34,768 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$5,467 Vol.
91%
15°C
$4,504 Vol.
10%
16°C
$5,066 Vol.
1%
17°C or higher
$4,751 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus heavily favors a highest temperature of 14°C in Warsaw at 93.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts centering daytime highs around 14°C amid partly sunny skies and moderate northerly winds. Current observations from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) show a chilly morning start near 4°C, with gradual warming expected under light cloud cover, consistent with AccuWeather's 14°C projection. April climatology supports this, with typical highs of 12–15°C, but ensemble spreads indicate minor uncertainty from 12–16°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected persistent cloudiness capping at 13°C or stronger insolation pushing to 15°C; IMGW updates later today could refine this as observations accumulate.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$73,349Date de fin
3 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus heavily favors a highest temperature of 14°C in Warsaw at 93.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts centering daytime highs around 14°C amid partly sunny skies and moderate northerly winds. Current observations from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) show a chilly morning start near 4°C, with gradual warming expected under light cloud cover, consistent with AccuWeather's 14°C projection. April climatology supports this, with typical highs of 12–15°C, but ensemble spreads indicate minor uncertainty from 12–16°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected persistent cloudiness capping at 13°C or stronger insolation pushing to 15°C; IMGW updates later today could refine this as observations accumulate.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$73,349Date de fin
3 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a highest temperature of 14°C in Warsaw at 93.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts centering daytime highs around 14°C amid partly sunny skies and moderate northerly winds. Current observations from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) show a chilly morning start near 4°C, with gradual warming expected under light cloud cover, consistent with AccuWeather's 14°C projection. April climatology supports this, with typical highs of 12–15°C, but ensemble spreads indicate minor uncertainty from 12–16°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected persistent cloudiness capping at 13°C or stronger insolation pushing to 15°C; IMGW updates later today could refine this as observations accumulate.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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