Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) place Milan's highest temperature on March 29 around 17-19°C, fueling the tight trader consensus with 17°C and 18°C leading at similar implied probabilities. A persistent high-pressure ridge over central Europe is advecting mild southerly air masses into northern Italy, supporting above-average highs—well beyond the March climatological norm of 13-14°C at Milan Linate Airport—while low-level winds and partial cloud cover introduce uncertainty in peak diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include ECMWF's warmer bias (favoring 18°C) versus GFS ensembles leaning cooler (17°C), with cloud evolution as the key variable; new 00Z model runs expected overnight could sharpen the outlook before resolution based on official meteorological observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Milan le 29 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Milan le 29 mars ?
17°C 26%
18°C 25%
19°C 22%
16°C 17%
12°C ou moins
2%
13°C
6%
14°C
8%
15°C
11%
16°C
17%
17°C
26%
18°C
25%
19°C
22%
20°C
14%
21°C
10%
22°C ou plus
8%
17°C 26%
18°C 25%
19°C 22%
16°C 17%
12°C ou moins
2%
13°C
6%
14°C
8%
15°C
11%
16°C
17%
17°C
26%
18°C
25%
19°C
22%
20°C
14%
21°C
10%
22°C ou plus
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) place Milan's highest temperature on March 29 around 17-19°C, fueling the tight trader consensus with 17°C and 18°C leading at similar implied probabilities. A persistent high-pressure ridge over central Europe is advecting mild southerly air masses into northern Italy, supporting above-average highs—well beyond the March climatological norm of 13-14°C at Milan Linate Airport—while low-level winds and partial cloud cover introduce uncertainty in peak diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include ECMWF's warmer bias (favoring 18°C) versus GFS ensembles leaning cooler (17°C), with cloud evolution as the key variable; new 00Z model runs expected overnight could sharpen the outlook before resolution based on official meteorological observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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