Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russian models projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 16 at 13–15°C, driven by post-frontal clearing after an occlusion front from a southern cyclone brings showers and northerly winds through April 14–15. Current observations show daytime highs near 10°C today amid cloudy, rainy conditions 1.5–2.5°C above April norms, with nighttime lows around +4–6°C. Differentiating factors include timing of high-pressure ridging—earlier clearing favors 15°C under moderate easterly winds (9–10 mph) and partial sun, while persistent low clouds or gusts could limit to 13°C. New 12Z model runs and surface data releases today and tomorrow will refine these market-implied odds amid typical spring variability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Moscow on April 16?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 16?
13°C 25%
14°C 17%
10°C 13%
12°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 avr. 2026
8°C or below
3%
9°C
3%
10°C
9%
11°C
9%
12°C
13%
13°C
25%
14°C
16%
15°C
8%
16°C
7%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
3%
13°C 25%
14°C 17%
10°C 13%
12°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 avr. 2026
8°C or below
$276 Vol.
3%
9°C
$47 Vol.
3%
10°C
$52 Vol.
9%
11°C
$66 Vol.
9%
12°C
$31 Vol.
13%
13°C
$39 Vol.
25%
14°C
$84 Vol.
16%
15°C
$137 Vol.
8%
16°C
$175 Vol.
7%
17°C
$107 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$64 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russian models projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 16 at 13–15°C, driven by post-frontal clearing after an occlusion front from a southern cyclone brings showers and northerly winds through April 14–15. Current observations show daytime highs near 10°C today amid cloudy, rainy conditions 1.5–2.5°C above April norms, with nighttime lows around +4–6°C. Differentiating factors include timing of high-pressure ridging—earlier clearing favors 15°C under moderate easterly winds (9–10 mph) and partial sun, while persistent low clouds or gusts could limit to 13°C. New 12Z model runs and surface data releases today and tomorrow will refine these market-implied odds amid typical spring variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 14, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Volume
$858Date de fin
16 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russian models projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 16 at 13–15°C, driven by post-frontal clearing after an occlusion front from a southern cyclone brings showers and northerly winds through April 14–15. Current observations show daytime highs near 10°C today amid cloudy, rainy conditions 1.5–2.5°C above April norms, with nighttime lows around +4–6°C. Differentiating factors include timing of high-pressure ridging—earlier clearing favors 15°C under moderate easterly winds (9–10 mph) and partial sun, while persistent low clouds or gusts could limit to 13°C. New 12Z model runs and surface data releases today and tomorrow will refine these market-implied odds amid typical spring variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$858Date de fin
16 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russian models projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 16 at 13–15°C, driven by post-frontal clearing after an occlusion front from a southern cyclone brings showers and northerly winds through April 14–15. Current observations show daytime highs near 10°C today amid cloudy, rainy conditions 1.5–2.5°C above April norms, with nighttime lows around +4–6°C. Differentiating factors include timing of high-pressure ridging—earlier clearing favors 15°C under moderate easterly winds (9–10 mph) and partial sun, while persistent low clouds or gusts could limit to 13°C. New 12Z model runs and surface data releases today and tomorrow will refine these market-implied odds amid typical spring variability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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