Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 14°C (36.5% implied probability) in Warsaw on April 13, closely followed by 15°C (24.5%) and 13°C (24%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering surface temperatures tightly around 13–15°C amid mild spring conditions. These models reflect consensus on persistent high-pressure influence over Central Europe, limiting cloud cover and allowing daytime heating under light southerly flows, consistent with Warsaw's climatological April average high of about 13°C from IMGW historical data. Recent observational trends on April 12 show daytime maxima near 12°C with stable atmospheric profiles, but inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to potential shortwave troughs or timing shifts in model runs. Traders await final IMGW updates and hourly observations from Chopin Airport for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 13?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 13?
14°C 35%
15°C 25%
13°C 23%
16°C 8%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
5%
13°C
23%
14°C
35%
15°C
25%
16°C
8%
17°C
3%
18°C or higher
1%
14°C 35%
15°C 25%
13°C 23%
16°C 8%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
5%
13°C
23%
14°C
35%
15°C
25%
16°C
8%
17°C
3%
18°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 9, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 14°C (36.5% implied probability) in Warsaw on April 13, closely followed by 15°C (24.5%) and 13°C (24%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering surface temperatures tightly around 13–15°C amid mild spring conditions. These models reflect consensus on persistent high-pressure influence over Central Europe, limiting cloud cover and allowing daytime heating under light southerly flows, consistent with Warsaw's climatological April average high of about 13°C from IMGW historical data. Recent observational trends on April 12 show daytime maxima near 12°C with stable atmospheric profiles, but inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to potential shortwave troughs or timing shifts in model runs. Traders await final IMGW updates and hourly observations from Chopin Airport for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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