Peace Deal

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where users trade on the real-world outcomes of events across Iran and many other topics. Prices are quoted from 0 to 100 cents and reflect the implied probability that an event will occur. Because traders put real money behind their views, Polymarket odds represent a real-time, skin-in-the-game consensus, often referred to as the "wisdom of the crowd."

A Peace Deal prediction market lets users trade Yes or No shares on a specific question tied to Peace Deal-related events, such as "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)". Each share pays out $1 if the outcome resolves in its favor, and $0 if it does not. The current share price, for example, 70% on "August 31", reflects the market's implied probability for that outcome at any given moment.

The Iran category hosts 214 markets covering a wide range of subjects. Popular subcategories include Oil, U.S. x Iran, and Iran Ceasefire, each with its own dedicated page showing live odds, trading volume, and active markets. You can browse the full list of Iran subcategories from the left-side navigation on the Iran page.

Every Iran market on Polymarket has outcomes priced between 0¢ and 100¢. That price is the implied probability of the outcome occurring. For example, if "August 31" is trading at 70% in "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)", traders are collectively pricing in roughly that probability. Prices update continuously as new information, data releases, and events move trader sentiment.

Activity is constantly shifting, but you can sort the page by 24-hour volume to see where trading is concentrated. Currently, "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)" is among the most actively traded markets on the Peace Deal page, alongside other high-volume markets like "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)" and "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?".

Each Iran market has a clearly defined resolution source and criteria published on the market page. When the event concludes, for example, when a result is officially reported, a deadline passes, or an authoritative source confirms the outcome, the market resolves and winning shares pay out $1 each. Markets in categories such as Elections, Economy, and Geopolitics typically rely on official government, regulatory, or primary-source reporting for resolution.

Iran markets respond in real time to news, announcements, data releases, and policy shifts. A single development, such as a new poll, economic indicator, court ruling, or geopolitical event, can materially change the implied probability of an outcome. Looking at markets like "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)", price movements reflect traders continuously updating their views as fresh information arrives.

Polymarket currently lists 214 markets in the Iran category, with 21 of those in Peace Deal alone. The left-side navigation shows live market counts for every subcategory, including Oil, U.S. x Iran, and Iran Ceasefire, so you can quickly see where coverage is deepest.

Yes. Most Iran markets are designed to let users trade well ahead of the underlying event, from short-horizon weekly markets to long-dated markets covering outcomes months or years away. Examples currently listed include "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)" and "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?", which let traders take positions as new information emerges over the life of the market.

Prediction markets and traditional forecasts, such as polls, models, or analyst estimates, are complementary tools. Because Polymarket traders are risking real capital, Iran odds aggregate many participants' information and incentives into a single probability, a mechanism that has historically tracked real-world outcomes closely in domains like Elections, Economy, and Geopolitics. That said, no market is a guarantee; odds represent trader consensus at a point in time, not a prediction of what will happen.

You can browse the Iran page to see active markets, open any market such as "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)" to view its order book and full rules, and then trade Yes or No shares once your account is funded. The left-side navigation makes it easy to drill into subcategories like Oil or U.S. x Iran to focus on the topics you follow most closely.

Peace Deal markets are driven by the same catalysts that move the underlying real-world story: official announcements, scheduled events and deadlines, data and reporting, and major news. For a market like "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)", watch for upcoming dates, related Iran releases, and shifts in the broader Oil and U.S. x Iran markets, all of which can change the implied probability traders assign to each outcome.

Every market card on Iran and Peace Deal pages displays the current implied probability for each outcome along with 24-hour or cumulative trading volume. For deeper detail, including price history, the order book, and full resolution rules, click into any individual market such as "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)".