**Adelita Grijalva (D), the incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed her father with roughly 70% of the vote, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 7th congressional district.** The seat features a D+10 to D+13 partisan lean, a majority-Latino population concentrated in western Phoenix, Glendale, and surrounding Maricopa County communities, and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Race raters classify it as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Both candidates advanced unopposed from the July 21, 2026 primaries—Grijalva on the Democratic side and Daniel Butierez Sr. on the Republican side—leaving little uncertainty in candidate quality or primary dynamics. The district’s structural Democratic advantage, reinforced by the recent special-election margin and demographic profile, drives the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5%–4.5% pricing. A realistic challenge would require an unusually large national Republican wave, a major scandal or health event affecting the Democratic nominee, or an unforeseen shift in turnout among key voting blocs, none of which appears imminent based on current conditions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAZ-07 House Election Winner
AZ-07 House Election Winner
$32,780 Vol.
$32,780 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$32,780 Vol.
$32,780 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$5,800 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$26,980 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Adelita Grijalva (D), the incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed her father with roughly 70% of the vote, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 7th congressional district.** The seat features a D+10 to D+13 partisan lean, a majority-Latino population concentrated in western Phoenix, Glendale, and surrounding Maricopa County communities, and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Race raters classify it as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election.
Both candidates advanced unopposed from the July 21, 2026 primaries—Grijalva on the Democratic side and Daniel Butierez Sr. on the Republican side—leaving little uncertainty in candidate quality or primary dynamics. The district’s structural Democratic advantage, reinforced by the recent special-election margin and demographic profile, drives the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5%–4.5% pricing.
A realistic challenge would require an unusually large national Republican wave, a major scandal or health event affecting the Democratic nominee, or an unforeseen shift in turnout among key voting blocs, none of which appears imminent based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$32,780Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Adelita Grijalva (D), the incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed her father with roughly 70% of the vote, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 7th congressional district.** The seat features a D+10 to D+13 partisan lean, a majority-Latino population concentrated in western Phoenix, Glendale, and surrounding Maricopa County communities, and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Race raters classify it as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election.
Both candidates advanced unopposed from the July 21, 2026 primaries—Grijalva on the Democratic side and Daniel Butierez Sr. on the Republican side—leaving little uncertainty in candidate quality or primary dynamics. The district’s structural Democratic advantage, reinforced by the recent special-election margin and demographic profile, drives the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5%–4.5% pricing.
A realistic challenge would require an unusually large national Republican wave, a major scandal or health event affecting the Democratic nominee, or an unforeseen shift in turnout among key voting blocs, none of which appears imminent based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,780Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...**Adelita Grijalva (D), the incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed her father with roughly 70% of the vote, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 7th congressional district.** The seat features a D+10 to D+13 partisan lean, a majority-Latino population concentrated in western Phoenix, Glendale, and surrounding Maricopa County communities, and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Race raters classify it as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Both candidates advanced unopposed from the July 21, 2026 primaries—Grijalva on the Democratic side and Daniel Butierez Sr. on the Republican side—leaving little uncertainty in candidate quality or primary dynamics. The district’s structural Democratic advantage, reinforced by the recent special-election margin and demographic profile, drives the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5%–4.5% pricing. A realistic challenge would require an unusually large national Republican wave, a major scandal or health event affecting the Democratic nominee, or an unforeseen shift in turnout among key voting blocs, none of which appears imminent based on current conditions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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