Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 88.5% for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the rarity of such events—none confirmed globally since Mount Pinatubo's VEI 6 in 1991—and current monitoring data from the USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program indicating routine low-level activity. As of mid-April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide this year from 47 volcanoes, with 40 continuing; all feature small ash plumes, lava flows, or minor explosions at NORMAL or ADVISORY/YELLOW alert levels, including recent events at Sakurajima (Aira Caldera) on April 11 and paused activity at Kīlauea. No sites show precursors like rapid ground deformation, intense seismicity, or large magma influx needed for VEI ≥6 (≥10 km³ tephra volume, >25 km plume). Ongoing weekly reports track unrest at Campi Flegrei and others, but scientific assessments see negligible near-term risk, with surveillance updates expected routinely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGrande eruzione vulcanica (vei ≥6) nel 2026?
Grande eruzione vulcanica (vei ≥6) nel 2026?
$51,125 Vol.
$51,125 Vol.
31 mar 2027
$51,125 Vol.
$51,125 Vol.
31 mar 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 88.5% for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the rarity of such events—none confirmed globally since Mount Pinatubo's VEI 6 in 1991—and current monitoring data from the USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program indicating routine low-level activity. As of mid-April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide this year from 47 volcanoes, with 40 continuing; all feature small ash plumes, lava flows, or minor explosions at NORMAL or ADVISORY/YELLOW alert levels, including recent events at Sakurajima (Aira Caldera) on April 11 and paused activity at Kīlauea. No sites show precursors like rapid ground deformation, intense seismicity, or large magma influx needed for VEI ≥6 (≥10 km³ tephra volume, >25 km plume). Ongoing weekly reports track unrest at Campi Flegrei and others, but scientific assessments see negligible near-term risk, with surveillance updates expected routinely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$51,125Data di fine
31 mar 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 88.5% for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the rarity of such events—none confirmed globally since Mount Pinatubo's VEI 6 in 1991—and current monitoring data from the USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program indicating routine low-level activity. As of mid-April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide this year from 47 volcanoes, with 40 continuing; all feature small ash plumes, lava flows, or minor explosions at NORMAL or ADVISORY/YELLOW alert levels, including recent events at Sakurajima (Aira Caldera) on April 11 and paused activity at Kīlauea. No sites show precursors like rapid ground deformation, intense seismicity, or large magma influx needed for VEI ≥6 (≥10 km³ tephra volume, >25 km plume). Ongoing weekly reports track unrest at Campi Flegrei and others, but scientific assessments see negligible near-term risk, with surveillance updates expected routinely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$51,125Data di fine
31 mar 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 88.5% for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the rarity of such events—none confirmed globally since Mount Pinatubo's VEI 6 in 1991—and current monitoring data from the USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program indicating routine low-level activity. As of mid-April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide this year from 47 volcanoes, with 40 continuing; all feature small ash plumes, lava flows, or minor explosions at NORMAL or ADVISORY/YELLOW alert levels, including recent events at Sakurajima (Aira Caldera) on April 11 and paused activity at Kīlauea. No sites show precursors like rapid ground deformation, intense seismicity, or large magma influx needed for VEI ≥6 (≥10 km³ tephra volume, >25 km plume). Ongoing weekly reports track unrest at Campi Flegrei and others, but scientific assessments see negligible near-term risk, with surveillance updates expected routinely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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