Recent polls, including Léger's April 4 survey showing PQ at 33% and PLQ at 32%, indicate a tight popular vote race between Parti Québécois and Quebec Liberal Party, yet trader consensus prices PQ at 55% implied probability to win the most seats due to its efficient vote distribution in francophone ridings under Quebec's first-past-the-post system. Projections from 338Canada (updated March 31) forecast PQ securing 63 seats for a likely majority, while PLQ gets 47 despite higher vote share. CAQ languishes at 13% post-François Legault's January resignation and Christine Fréchette's recent leadership victory, which yielded no poll rebound. Marginal parties like PCQ (12-14%), QS, PVQ trail far behind. The election must occur by December 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni generali del Quebec
Vincitore delle elezioni generali del Quebec
PQ 55%
PLQ 36%
CAQ 9%
PCQ <1%
$424,638 Vol.
$424,638 Vol.
5 ott 2026
PQ
55%
PLQ
36%
CAQ
9%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 55%
PLQ 36%
CAQ 9%
PCQ <1%
$424,638 Vol.
$424,638 Vol.
5 ott 2026
PQ
$41,716 Vol.
55%
PLQ
$47,611 Vol.
36%
CAQ
$42,701 Vol.
9%
PCQ
$139,114 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$105,358 Vol.
<1%
QS
$48,137 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls, including Léger's April 4 survey showing PQ at 33% and PLQ at 32%, indicate a tight popular vote race between Parti Québécois and Quebec Liberal Party, yet trader consensus prices PQ at 55% implied probability to win the most seats due to its efficient vote distribution in francophone ridings under Quebec's first-past-the-post system. Projections from 338Canada (updated March 31) forecast PQ securing 63 seats for a likely majority, while PLQ gets 47 despite higher vote share. CAQ languishes at 13% post-François Legault's January resignation and Christine Fréchette's recent leadership victory, which yielded no poll rebound. Marginal parties like PCQ (12-14%), QS, PVQ trail far behind. The election must occur by December 2026.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercato aperto: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$424,638Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls, including Léger's April 4 survey showing PQ at 33% and PLQ at 32%, indicate a tight popular vote race between Parti Québécois and Quebec Liberal Party, yet trader consensus prices PQ at 55% implied probability to win the most seats due to its efficient vote distribution in francophone ridings under Quebec's first-past-the-post system. Projections from 338Canada (updated March 31) forecast PQ securing 63 seats for a likely majority, while PLQ gets 47 despite higher vote share. CAQ languishes at 13% post-François Legault's January resignation and Christine Fréchette's recent leadership victory, which yielded no poll rebound. Marginal parties like PCQ (12-14%), QS, PVQ trail far behind. The election must occur by December 2026.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$424,638Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls, including Léger's April 4 survey showing PQ at 33% and PLQ at 32%, indicate a tight popular vote race between Parti Québécois and Quebec Liberal Party, yet trader consensus prices PQ at 55% implied probability to win the most seats due to its efficient vote distribution in francophone ridings under Quebec's first-past-the-post system. Projections from 338Canada (updated March 31) forecast PQ securing 63 seats for a likely majority, while PLQ gets 47 despite higher vote share. CAQ languishes at 13% post-François Legault's January resignation and Christine Fréchette's recent leadership victory, which yielded no poll rebound. Marginal parties like PCQ (12-14%), QS, PVQ trail far behind. The election must occur by December 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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