Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.5% for no Atlantic hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity, as no such storms have developed before June 1 in modern records from NOAA datasets. The National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Outlook reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with formation potential, amid high vertical wind shear and marginal sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C outside the main development region. Recent Colorado State University April forecast anticipates below-normal 2026 activity under emerging El Niño conditions favoring shear. A realistic upset would need an anomalous early tropical wave from Africa or the Caribbean to rapidly intensify under rare low-shear windows, with NHC regular outlooks starting May 15 for updates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSi formerà un uragano entro il 31 maggio?
Si formerà un uragano entro il 31 maggio?
Sì
$41,738 Vol.
$41,738 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Sì
$41,738 Vol.
$41,738 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.5% for no Atlantic hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity, as no such storms have developed before June 1 in modern records from NOAA datasets. The National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Outlook reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with formation potential, amid high vertical wind shear and marginal sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C outside the main development region. Recent Colorado State University April forecast anticipates below-normal 2026 activity under emerging El Niño conditions favoring shear. A realistic upset would need an anomalous early tropical wave from Africa or the Caribbean to rapidly intensify under rare low-shear windows, with NHC regular outlooks starting May 15 for updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercato aperto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$41,738Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.5% for no Atlantic hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity, as no such storms have developed before June 1 in modern records from NOAA datasets. The National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Outlook reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with formation potential, amid high vertical wind shear and marginal sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C outside the main development region. Recent Colorado State University April forecast anticipates below-normal 2026 activity under emerging El Niño conditions favoring shear. A realistic upset would need an anomalous early tropical wave from Africa or the Caribbean to rapidly intensify under rare low-shear windows, with NHC regular outlooks starting May 15 for updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$41,738Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.5% for no Atlantic hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity, as no such storms have developed before June 1 in modern records from NOAA datasets. The National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Outlook reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with formation potential, amid high vertical wind shear and marginal sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C outside the main development region. Recent Colorado State University April forecast anticipates below-normal 2026 activity under emerging El Niño conditions favoring shear. A realistic upset would need an anomalous early tropical wave from Africa or the Caribbean to rapidly intensify under rare low-shear windows, with NHC regular outlooks starting May 15 for updates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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