Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's May 2025 decision to pursue Alabama's governorship opened the 2026 U.S. Senate seat, fueling a competitive Republican primary on May 19 where Rep. Barry Moore leads recent polls at 26%, trailed closely by Attorney General Steve Marshall and Jared Hudson amid high undecideds. Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance—no Democratic Senate victory since 1992—and Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win in the state drive trader consensus to 93.5% for a GOP general election triumph on November 3, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of weak Democratic opposition and historical base rates for safe red seats. Realistic shifts could stem from a post-primary scandal engulfing the nominee, an unforeseen Democratic surge, or depressed GOP turnout from primary divisions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican
94%
Democrat
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican
$6,051 거래량
94%
Democrat
$3,726 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's May 2025 decision to pursue Alabama's governorship opened the 2026 U.S. Senate seat, fueling a competitive Republican primary on May 19 where Rep. Barry Moore leads recent polls at 26%, trailed closely by Attorney General Steve Marshall and Jared Hudson amid high undecideds. Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance—no Democratic Senate victory since 1992—and Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win in the state drive trader consensus to 93.5% for a GOP general election triumph on November 3, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of weak Democratic opposition and historical base rates for safe red seats. Realistic shifts could stem from a post-primary scandal engulfing the nominee, an unforeseen Democratic surge, or depressed GOP turnout from primary divisions.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
거래량
$9,777종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's May 2025 decision to pursue Alabama's governorship opened the 2026 U.S. Senate seat, fueling a competitive Republican primary on May 19 where Rep. Barry Moore leads recent polls at 26%, trailed closely by Attorney General Steve Marshall and Jared Hudson amid high undecideds. Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance—no Democratic Senate victory since 1992—and Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win in the state drive trader consensus to 93.5% for a GOP general election triumph on November 3, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of weak Democratic opposition and historical base rates for safe red seats. Realistic shifts could stem from a post-primary scandal engulfing the nominee, an unforeseen Democratic surge, or depressed GOP turnout from primary divisions.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$9,777종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's May 2025 decision to pursue Alabama's governorship opened the 2026 U.S. Senate seat, fueling a competitive Republican primary on May 19 where Rep. Barry Moore leads recent polls at 26%, trailed closely by Attorney General Steve Marshall and Jared Hudson amid high undecideds. Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance—no Democratic Senate victory since 1992—and Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win in the state drive trader consensus to 93.5% for a GOP general election triumph on November 3, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of weak Democratic opposition and historical base rates for safe red seats. Realistic shifts could stem from a post-primary scandal engulfing the nominee, an unforeseen Democratic surge, or depressed GOP turnout from primary divisions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문