Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% in March—above the ECB's 2% target—driven by surging energy costs from the Iran conflict's lingering effects despite a recent ceasefire, prompting traders to price a 74% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held the deposit rate steady at 2% but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling heightened vigilance amid soft labor markets and subdued GDP growth around 0.2% in Q1. Major banks like Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan now forecast hikes, with swaps indicating potential tightening; however, policymakers like Olli Rehn emphasize data dependence ahead of the April 30 decision, reflecting the market's consensus on monetary policy recalibration.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$93,754 거래량
$93,754 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$93,754 거래량
$93,754 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% in March—above the ECB's 2% target—driven by surging energy costs from the Iran conflict's lingering effects despite a recent ceasefire, prompting traders to price a 74% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held the deposit rate steady at 2% but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling heightened vigilance amid soft labor markets and subdued GDP growth around 0.2% in Q1. Major banks like Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan now forecast hikes, with swaps indicating potential tightening; however, policymakers like Olli Rehn emphasize data dependence ahead of the April 30 decision, reflecting the market's consensus on monetary policy recalibration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
거래량
$93,754종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% in March—above the ECB's 2% target—driven by surging energy costs from the Iran conflict's lingering effects despite a recent ceasefire, prompting traders to price a 74% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held the deposit rate steady at 2% but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling heightened vigilance amid soft labor markets and subdued GDP growth around 0.2% in Q1. Major banks like Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan now forecast hikes, with swaps indicating potential tightening; however, policymakers like Olli Rehn emphasize data dependence ahead of the April 30 decision, reflecting the market's consensus on monetary policy recalibration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$93,754종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% in March—above the ECB's 2% target—driven by surging energy costs from the Iran conflict's lingering effects despite a recent ceasefire, prompting traders to price a 74% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held the deposit rate steady at 2% but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling heightened vigilance amid soft labor markets and subdued GDP growth around 0.2% in Q1. Major banks like Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan now forecast hikes, with swaps indicating potential tightening; however, policymakers like Olli Rehn emphasize data dependence ahead of the April 30 decision, reflecting the market's consensus on monetary policy recalibration.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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