Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe external pressures from U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that degraded its missile forces and reportedly killed Supreme Leader Khamenei in early March. No credible reports of military unrest, IRGC defections, or organized internal power struggles have surfaced in the past 30 days, with security forces maintaining tight domestic control through arrests, internet blackouts, and checkpoints following the suppression of January-February protests sparked by economic collapse. Ongoing war efforts focus on external retaliation via proxies and the Strait of Hormuz, while historical patterns show the regime's institutional loyalty enduring multiple protest waves. Escalation to a coup would require unprecedented fractures, unlikely absent major leadership vacuums or battlefield collapse.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$395,564 거래량
$395,564 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$395,564 거래량
$395,564 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe external pressures from U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that degraded its missile forces and reportedly killed Supreme Leader Khamenei in early March. No credible reports of military unrest, IRGC defections, or organized internal power struggles have surfaced in the past 30 days, with security forces maintaining tight domestic control through arrests, internet blackouts, and checkpoints following the suppression of January-February protests sparked by economic collapse. Ongoing war efforts focus on external retaliation via proxies and the Strait of Hormuz, while historical patterns show the regime's institutional loyalty enduring multiple protest waves. Escalation to a coup would require unprecedented fractures, unlikely absent major leadership vacuums or battlefield collapse.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
거래량
$395,564종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe external pressures from U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that degraded its missile forces and reportedly killed Supreme Leader Khamenei in early March. No credible reports of military unrest, IRGC defections, or organized internal power struggles have surfaced in the past 30 days, with security forces maintaining tight domestic control through arrests, internet blackouts, and checkpoints following the suppression of January-February protests sparked by economic collapse. Ongoing war efforts focus on external retaliation via proxies and the Strait of Hormuz, while historical patterns show the regime's institutional loyalty enduring multiple protest waves. Escalation to a coup would require unprecedented fractures, unlikely absent major leadership vacuums or battlefield collapse.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$395,564종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe external pressures from U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that degraded its missile forces and reportedly killed Supreme Leader Khamenei in early March. No credible reports of military unrest, IRGC defections, or organized internal power struggles have surfaced in the past 30 days, with security forces maintaining tight domestic control through arrests, internet blackouts, and checkpoints following the suppression of January-February protests sparked by economic collapse. Ongoing war efforts focus on external retaliation via proxies and the Strait of Hormuz, while historical patterns show the regime's institutional loyalty enduring multiple protest waves. Escalation to a coup would require unprecedented fractures, unlikely absent major leadership vacuums or battlefield collapse.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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