US and Israeli airstrikes in late February and early March 2026 targeted Iran's nuclear infrastructure, destroying or damaging key sites like Natanz, Taleghan 2, and enrichment facilities at Isfahan, as confirmed by satellite imagery and IAEA reports showing no radiation increases or test activity. A US-brokered ceasefire on April 8, amid Strait of Hormuz blockade tensions, has led to negotiations where Iranian officials signal compromise on uranium enrichment, and President Trump stated Iran offered to abandon nuclear weapons pursuit for 20 years. Limited IAEA access persists, but recent diplomacy and program setbacks extend breakout timelines to months, justifying trader consensus implying just 8% odds of a test before 2027 despite Iranian NPT exit debates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$170,591 거래량
$170,591 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$170,591 거래량
$170,591 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in late February and early March 2026 targeted Iran's nuclear infrastructure, destroying or damaging key sites like Natanz, Taleghan 2, and enrichment facilities at Isfahan, as confirmed by satellite imagery and IAEA reports showing no radiation increases or test activity. A US-brokered ceasefire on April 8, amid Strait of Hormuz blockade tensions, has led to negotiations where Iranian officials signal compromise on uranium enrichment, and President Trump stated Iran offered to abandon nuclear weapons pursuit for 20 years. Limited IAEA access persists, but recent diplomacy and program setbacks extend breakout timelines to months, justifying trader consensus implying just 8% odds of a test before 2027 despite Iranian NPT exit debates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
거래량
$170,591종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in late February and early March 2026 targeted Iran's nuclear infrastructure, destroying or damaging key sites like Natanz, Taleghan 2, and enrichment facilities at Isfahan, as confirmed by satellite imagery and IAEA reports showing no radiation increases or test activity. A US-brokered ceasefire on April 8, amid Strait of Hormuz blockade tensions, has led to negotiations where Iranian officials signal compromise on uranium enrichment, and President Trump stated Iran offered to abandon nuclear weapons pursuit for 20 years. Limited IAEA access persists, but recent diplomacy and program setbacks extend breakout timelines to months, justifying trader consensus implying just 8% odds of a test before 2027 despite Iranian NPT exit debates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$170,591종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes in late February and early March 2026 targeted Iran's nuclear infrastructure, destroying or damaging key sites like Natanz, Taleghan 2, and enrichment facilities at Isfahan, as confirmed by satellite imagery and IAEA reports showing no radiation increases or test activity. A US-brokered ceasefire on April 8, amid Strait of Hormuz blockade tensions, has led to negotiations where Iranian officials signal compromise on uranium enrichment, and President Trump stated Iran offered to abandon nuclear weapons pursuit for 20 years. Limited IAEA access persists, but recent diplomacy and program setbacks extend breakout timelines to months, justifying trader consensus implying just 8% odds of a test before 2027 despite Iranian NPT exit debates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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