Israel and the US launched major airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, marking the onset of open conflict after prior escalations. In the past week, Israel struck Iran's largest petrochemical complex in Mahshahr on April 4-5, shutting down production, while IDF operations target Iranian tunnel networks to disrupt missile concealment. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages and threatened Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. On April 15, IDF Chief Eyal Zamir confirmed approved plans for further strikes on Iran amid ceasefire talks contingent on Iran halting Hormuz disruptions. Bettors eye pending Pentagon briefings, negotiation outcomes, and proxy actions by Hezbollah for shifts in escalation risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$1,679,158 거래량
2026.04.21
4월 14일
<1%
4월 21일
9%
$1,679,158 거래량
4월 14일
$1,177,062 거래량
<1%
4월 21일
$502,097 거래량
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel and the US launched major airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, marking the onset of open conflict after prior escalations. In the past week, Israel struck Iran's largest petrochemical complex in Mahshahr on April 4-5, shutting down production, while IDF operations target Iranian tunnel networks to disrupt missile concealment. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages and threatened Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. On April 15, IDF Chief Eyal Zamir confirmed approved plans for further strikes on Iran amid ceasefire talks contingent on Iran halting Hormuz disruptions. Bettors eye pending Pentagon briefings, negotiation outcomes, and proxy actions by Hezbollah for shifts in escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
마켓 개설일: Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
거래량
$1,679,158종료일
2026.04.21마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel and the US launched major airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, marking the onset of open conflict after prior escalations. In the past week, Israel struck Iran's largest petrochemical complex in Mahshahr on April 4-5, shutting down production, while IDF operations target Iranian tunnel networks to disrupt missile concealment. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages and threatened Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. On April 15, IDF Chief Eyal Zamir confirmed approved plans for further strikes on Iran amid ceasefire talks contingent on Iran halting Hormuz disruptions. Bettors eye pending Pentagon briefings, negotiation outcomes, and proxy actions by Hezbollah for shifts in escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
거래량
$1,679,158종료일
2026.04.21마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel and the US launched major airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, marking the onset of open conflict after prior escalations. In the past week, Israel struck Iran's largest petrochemical complex in Mahshahr on April 4-5, shutting down production, while IDF operations target Iranian tunnel networks to disrupt missile concealment. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages and threatened Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. On April 15, IDF Chief Eyal Zamir confirmed approved plans for further strikes on Iran amid ceasefire talks contingent on Iran halting Hormuz disruptions. Bettors eye pending Pentagon briefings, negotiation outcomes, and proxy actions by Hezbollah for shifts in escalation risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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