US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, part of Operation Enduring Fury, halted on April 7 per Pentagon announcement, following a fragile ceasefire amid collapsed peace talks and a US naval blockade enforcing control over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated the conflict is "close to over," with CENTCOM confirming Iran's missile, naval, and air defense capabilities significantly degraded after five weeks of operations, and no new strikes reported since the pause. Senate Republicans rejected a war powers resolution yesterday, ceding authority to the executive. Traders price an end to military action by April 17 as near-certain based on de-escalation signals, though ceasefire expiration on April 22 or Iranian retaliation could prompt resumption, disrupting global shipping and energy routes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$30,085,429 거래량
2026.04.30
4월 17일
100%
$30,085,429 거래량
4월 17일
$27,059,373 거래량
100%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, part of Operation Enduring Fury, halted on April 7 per Pentagon announcement, following a fragile ceasefire amid collapsed peace talks and a US naval blockade enforcing control over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated the conflict is "close to over," with CENTCOM confirming Iran's missile, naval, and air defense capabilities significantly degraded after five weeks of operations, and no new strikes reported since the pause. Senate Republicans rejected a war powers resolution yesterday, ceding authority to the executive. Traders price an end to military action by April 17 as near-certain based on de-escalation signals, though ceasefire expiration on April 22 or Iranian retaliation could prompt resumption, disrupting global shipping and energy routes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
거래량
$30,085,429종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
최종 검토
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, part of Operation Enduring Fury, halted on April 7 per Pentagon announcement, following a fragile ceasefire amid collapsed peace talks and a US naval blockade enforcing control over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated the conflict is "close to over," with CENTCOM confirming Iran's missile, naval, and air defense capabilities significantly degraded after five weeks of operations, and no new strikes reported since the pause. Senate Republicans rejected a war powers resolution yesterday, ceding authority to the executive. Traders price an end to military action by April 17 as near-certain based on de-escalation signals, though ceasefire expiration on April 22 or Iranian retaliation could prompt resumption, disrupting global shipping and energy routes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$30,085,429종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
최종 검토
US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, part of Operation Enduring Fury, halted on April 7 per Pentagon announcement, following a fragile ceasefire amid collapsed peace talks and a US naval blockade enforcing control over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated the conflict is "close to over," with CENTCOM confirming Iran's missile, naval, and air defense capabilities significantly degraded after five weeks of operations, and no new strikes reported since the pause. Senate Republicans rejected a war powers resolution yesterday, ceding authority to the executive. Traders price an end to military action by April 17 as near-certain based on de-escalation signals, though ceasefire expiration on April 22 or Iranian retaliation could prompt resumption, disrupting global shipping and energy routes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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