Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Madrid high of 18°C (29.5% implied probability), with 17°C (24.5%) and 19°C (22.0%) in tight contention, driven by the latest ECMWF and AEMET ensemble forecasts converging on mild conditions under a persistent Azores High ridge. These models show low spread in 500 hPa geopotential heights, projecting 17-19°C maxima from southerly flows and clear skies, though subtle phasing differences in incoming Atlantic shortwaves could differentiate outcomes by 1-2°C. Historical late-March averages hover at 17.5°C, with soil temperatures and urban heat islands supporting the cluster while capping extremes below 23°C or above 13°C at under 4% combined odds. Upcoming AEMET updates at 1200 UTC may refine this further.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 28 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 28 de março?
19°C 31%
18°C 30%
17°C 25%
16°C 15%
13°C ou menos
2%
14°C
10%
15°C
9%
16°C
15%
17°C
25%
18°C
30%
19°C
22%
20°C
11%
21°C
10%
22°C
9%
23°C ou mais
2%
19°C 31%
18°C 30%
17°C 25%
16°C 15%
13°C ou menos
2%
14°C
10%
15°C
9%
16°C
15%
17°C
25%
18°C
30%
19°C
22%
20°C
11%
21°C
10%
22°C
9%
23°C ou mais
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Madrid high of 18°C (29.5% implied probability), with 17°C (24.5%) and 19°C (22.0%) in tight contention, driven by the latest ECMWF and AEMET ensemble forecasts converging on mild conditions under a persistent Azores High ridge. These models show low spread in 500 hPa geopotential heights, projecting 17-19°C maxima from southerly flows and clear skies, though subtle phasing differences in incoming Atlantic shortwaves could differentiate outcomes by 1-2°C. Historical late-March averages hover at 17.5°C, with soil temperatures and urban heat islands supporting the cluster while capping extremes below 23°C or above 13°C at under 4% combined odds. Upcoming AEMET updates at 1200 UTC may refine this further.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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