Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a NYC high of 60-61°F (31%) over 58-59°F (24%), driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast and model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF averaging 59-62°F for March 27 at Central Park. A building high-pressure ridge over the Northeast promises mild conditions, but differentiation hinges on the precise timing of an approaching weak cold front—earlier passage caps peaks at 58-59°F, while delay allows brief 60-61°F surges before evening cooling. Recent 12z model runs have warmed slightly from prior cooler biases, reflecting spring-like jet stream undulations and minimal cloud interference. Urban heat island effects could nudge observations 1-2°F higher, amplifying the razor-thin spread amid late-March volatility.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on March 27?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 27?
60-61°F 31%
58-59°F 24%
62-63°F 14%
64-65°F 13%
$12,628 Vol.
$12,628 Vol.
49°F ou menos
1%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
2%
54-55°F
5%
56-57°F
11%
58-59°F
24%
60-61°F
31%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
7%
68°F or higher
4%
60-61°F 31%
58-59°F 24%
62-63°F 14%
64-65°F 13%
$12,628 Vol.
$12,628 Vol.
49°F ou menos
1%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
2%
54-55°F
5%
56-57°F
11%
58-59°F
24%
60-61°F
31%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
7%
68°F or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a NYC high of 60-61°F (31%) over 58-59°F (24%), driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast and model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF averaging 59-62°F for March 27 at Central Park. A building high-pressure ridge over the Northeast promises mild conditions, but differentiation hinges on the precise timing of an approaching weak cold front—earlier passage caps peaks at 58-59°F, while delay allows brief 60-61°F surges before evening cooling. Recent 12z model runs have warmed slightly from prior cooler biases, reflecting spring-like jet stream undulations and minimal cloud interference. Urban heat island effects could nudge observations 1-2°F higher, amplifying the razor-thin spread amid late-March volatility.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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