Ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, updated in recent runs, project NYC's highest temperature on March 28 clustering around 43-45°F, fueling trader sentiment with 44-45°F (28.5%) and 42-43°F (24.5%) leading closely. A persistent upper-level trough over the Northeast ushers cool Canadian air, suppressing highs below the late-March climatological average of 49°F, while subtle differences in model physics—like boundary layer mixing and cloud cover—split probabilities between these bins. Coastal moderation tempers extremes, but diurnally varying solar insolation and weak frontal timing introduce uncertainty, keeping 40-41°F viable at 21.5%; traders eye tomorrow's 12Z updates for shifts.