Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Toronto high temperature of 12°C (22.4% implied probability) or 11°C (20.5%), with 13°C close behind at 17.0%, reflecting tight model ensemble spreads from Environment Canada and ECMWF forecasts. The primary driver is a high-pressure ridge building over eastern North America, ushering mild southerly flow and above-normal temperatures—well above the March 26 historical average of 8°C—while a weak frontal boundary introduces uncertainty. Recent GFS updates show peak heating mid-afternoon around 12°C under partly cloudy skies, but thicker cloud cover in cooler ensemble members caps it at 11°C, and delayed clearing boosts 13°C odds; traders eye today's 18Z model runs for resolution clarity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Toronto em 26 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Toronto em 26 de março?
12°C 22.4%
11°C 20%
13°C 17%
14°C 14.7%
$17,784 Vol.
$17,784 Vol.
8°C ou menos
4%
9°C
4%
10°C
5%
11°C
20%
12°C
22%
13°C
17%
14°C
15%
15°C
7%
16°C
3%
17°C
1%
18°C ou mais
1%
12°C 22.4%
11°C 20%
13°C 17%
14°C 14.7%
$17,784 Vol.
$17,784 Vol.
8°C ou menos
4%
9°C
4%
10°C
5%
11°C
20%
12°C
22%
13°C
17%
14°C
15%
15°C
7%
16°C
3%
17°C
1%
18°C ou mais
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Toronto high temperature of 12°C (22.4% implied probability) or 11°C (20.5%), with 13°C close behind at 17.0%, reflecting tight model ensemble spreads from Environment Canada and ECMWF forecasts. The primary driver is a high-pressure ridge building over eastern North America, ushering mild southerly flow and above-normal temperatures—well above the March 26 historical average of 8°C—while a weak frontal boundary introduces uncertainty. Recent GFS updates show peak heating mid-afternoon around 12°C under partly cloudy skies, but thicker cloud cover in cooler ensemble members caps it at 11°C, and delayed clearing boosts 13°C odds; traders eye today's 18Z model runs for resolution clarity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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