Trader sentiment favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC (43% implied probability) for April 2026 relative to pre-industrial levels, driven by Copernicus ERA5 data showing March's fourth-warmest anomaly at 1.48ºC above 1850–1900—buoyed by near-record sea surface temperatures (+0.44ºC above 1991–2020 average)—and preliminary early-April observations sustaining similar warmth. ENSO-neutral conditions persist (80% chance through June per NOAA), following La Niña's fade, with multi-model forecasts signaling a likely El Niño emergence by May–July that could amplify late-month heat. Historical analogs like March 2024 underscore the elevated baseline amid anthropogenic forcing, though second-half variability leaves room for shifts; full ERA5 April data expected early May.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоАпрель 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)
Апрель 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)
1,15–1,19ºC 43%
1,20–1,24°C 27%
1,10–1,14ºC 12%
1,25–1,29ºC 9%
$120,903 Объем
$120,903 Объем
10 мая 2026 г.
<1,10ºC
5%
1,10–1,14ºC
12%
1,15–1,19ºC
43%
1,20–1,24°C
27%
1,25–1,29ºC
9%
>1,29ºC
6%
1,15–1,19ºC 43%
1,20–1,24°C 27%
1,10–1,14ºC 12%
1,25–1,29ºC 9%
$120,903 Объем
$120,903 Объем
10 мая 2026 г.
<1,10ºC
$28,387 Объем
5%
1,10–1,14ºC
$23,018 Объем
12%
1,15–1,19ºC
$13,890 Объем
43%
1,20–1,24°C
$15,815 Объем
27%
1,25–1,29ºC
$27,729 Объем
9%
>1,29ºC
$12,065 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader sentiment favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC (43% implied probability) for April 2026 relative to pre-industrial levels, driven by Copernicus ERA5 data showing March's fourth-warmest anomaly at 1.48ºC above 1850–1900—buoyed by near-record sea surface temperatures (+0.44ºC above 1991–2020 average)—and preliminary early-April observations sustaining similar warmth. ENSO-neutral conditions persist (80% chance through June per NOAA), following La Niña's fade, with multi-model forecasts signaling a likely El Niño emergence by May–July that could amplify late-month heat. Historical analogs like March 2024 underscore the elevated baseline amid anthropogenic forcing, though second-half variability leaves room for shifts; full ERA5 April data expected early May.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Объем
$120,903Дата окончания
10 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader sentiment favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC (43% implied probability) for April 2026 relative to pre-industrial levels, driven by Copernicus ERA5 data showing March's fourth-warmest anomaly at 1.48ºC above 1850–1900—buoyed by near-record sea surface temperatures (+0.44ºC above 1991–2020 average)—and preliminary early-April observations sustaining similar warmth. ENSO-neutral conditions persist (80% chance through June per NOAA), following La Niña's fade, with multi-model forecasts signaling a likely El Niño emergence by May–July that could amplify late-month heat. Historical analogs like March 2024 underscore the elevated baseline amid anthropogenic forcing, though second-half variability leaves room for shifts; full ERA5 April data expected early May.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Объем
$120,903Дата окончания
10 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC (43% implied probability) for April 2026 relative to pre-industrial levels, driven by Copernicus ERA5 data showing March's fourth-warmest anomaly at 1.48ºC above 1850–1900—buoyed by near-record sea surface temperatures (+0.44ºC above 1991–2020 average)—and preliminary early-April observations sustaining similar warmth. ENSO-neutral conditions persist (80% chance through June per NOAA), following La Niña's fade, with multi-model forecasts signaling a likely El Niño emergence by May–July that could amplify late-month heat. Historical analogs like March 2024 underscore the elevated baseline amid anthropogenic forcing, though second-half variability leaves room for shifts; full ERA5 April data expected early May.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы