Trader sentiment favors a 6°C high in Munich on March 26 at 31.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 5°C at 25.5%, reflecting ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting peaks in the 5-7°C range under mild southerly airflow ahead of an approaching Atlantic low. Key differentiators include uncertainty in diurnal cloud cover timing, which could suppress maxima by 1-2°C, versus clearer skies boosting them toward 7-8°C; historical March 26 data from DWD shows an average high of 9°C with a standard deviation of 4°C, amplifying model spread. Recent 48-hour updates show slight warming trends, tightening odds around these thresholds while low probabilities for extremes align with continental spring variability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Munich on March 26?
Highest temperature in Munich on March 26?
6°C 32%
5°C 26%
7°C 19%
4°C 16%
-1°C or below
<1%
0°C
1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
1%
3°C
3%
4°C
16%
5°C
26%
6°C
32%
7°C
19%
8°C
6%
9°C or higher
2%
6°C 32%
5°C 26%
7°C 19%
4°C 16%
-1°C or below
<1%
0°C
1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
1%
3°C
3%
4°C
16%
5°C
26%
6°C
32%
7°C
19%
8°C
6%
9°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment favors a 6°C high in Munich on March 26 at 31.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 5°C at 25.5%, reflecting ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting peaks in the 5-7°C range under mild southerly airflow ahead of an approaching Atlantic low. Key differentiators include uncertainty in diurnal cloud cover timing, which could suppress maxima by 1-2°C, versus clearer skies boosting them toward 7-8°C; historical March 26 data from DWD shows an average high of 9°C with a standard deviation of 4°C, amplifying model spread. Recent 48-hour updates show slight warming trends, tightening odds around these thresholds while low probabilities for extremes align with continental spring variability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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