Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 28–30°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 17, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast of a 28°C maximum under cloudy skies with southerly winds, yet tempered by model ensemble spread from ECMWF and GFS indicating potential for brief insolation breaks pushing toward 30°C. Recent observations show April 16 peaking at 29°C despite clouds, highlighting urban heat island effects at Bao'an International Airport station amid high humidity (near 90%) and moderate sea breezes moderating peaks. Key differentiators include cloud cover fraction during afternoon peak hours (2–5 p.m.), wind speed shifts, and station microclimate; new hourly data updates expected throughout the day could refine odds further. Historical April averages hover at 27°C, underscoring inherent forecast uncertainty in subtropical conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 17?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 17?
30°C 31%
28°C 27%
29°C 23%
27°C 10%
НОВОЕ
$10,493 Объем
НОВОЕ
$10,493 Объем
17 апр. 2026 г.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
3%
26°C
8%
27°C
10%
28°C
27%
29°C
23%
30°C
31%
31°C
6%
32°C or higher
2%
30°C 31%
28°C 27%
29°C 23%
27°C 10%
НОВОЕ
$10,493 Объем
НОВОЕ
$10,493 Объем
17 апр. 2026 г.
22°C or below
$1,195 Объем
<1%
23°C
$2,121 Объем
<1%
24°C
$1,270 Объем
<1%
25°C
$1,497 Объем
3%
26°C
$1,396 Объем
8%
27°C
$522 Объем
10%
28°C
$338 Объем
27%
29°C
$168 Объем
23%
30°C
$697 Объем
31%
31°C
$828 Объем
6%
32°C or higher
$462 Объем
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 28–30°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 17, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast of a 28°C maximum under cloudy skies with southerly winds, yet tempered by model ensemble spread from ECMWF and GFS indicating potential for brief insolation breaks pushing toward 30°C. Recent observations show April 16 peaking at 29°C despite clouds, highlighting urban heat island effects at Bao'an International Airport station amid high humidity (near 90%) and moderate sea breezes moderating peaks. Key differentiators include cloud cover fraction during afternoon peak hours (2–5 p.m.), wind speed shifts, and station microclimate; new hourly data updates expected throughout the day could refine odds further. Historical April averages hover at 27°C, underscoring inherent forecast uncertainty in subtropical conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 15, 2026, 12:38 AM ET
Объем
$10,493Дата окончания
17 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 15, 2026, 12:38 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 28–30°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 17, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast of a 28°C maximum under cloudy skies with southerly winds, yet tempered by model ensemble spread from ECMWF and GFS indicating potential for brief insolation breaks pushing toward 30°C. Recent observations show April 16 peaking at 29°C despite clouds, highlighting urban heat island effects at Bao'an International Airport station amid high humidity (near 90%) and moderate sea breezes moderating peaks. Key differentiators include cloud cover fraction during afternoon peak hours (2–5 p.m.), wind speed shifts, and station microclimate; new hourly data updates expected throughout the day could refine odds further. Historical April averages hover at 27°C, underscoring inherent forecast uncertainty in subtropical conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$10,493Дата окончания
17 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 15, 2026, 12:38 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 28–30°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 17, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast of a 28°C maximum under cloudy skies with southerly winds, yet tempered by model ensemble spread from ECMWF and GFS indicating potential for brief insolation breaks pushing toward 30°C. Recent observations show April 16 peaking at 29°C despite clouds, highlighting urban heat island effects at Bao'an International Airport station amid high humidity (near 90%) and moderate sea breezes moderating peaks. Key differentiators include cloud cover fraction during afternoon peak hours (2–5 p.m.), wind speed shifts, and station microclimate; new hourly data updates expected throughout the day could refine odds further. Historical April averages hover at 27°C, underscoring inherent forecast uncertainty in subtropical conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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