Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in the tail end of an early-season heatwave gripping Israel, with April 15's verified high exceeding 35°C at Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv driving bets toward another scorcher on April 17 despite official Israel Meteorological Service guidance projecting coastal plain maxima of 21–29°C amid incoming clouds and possible thunderstorms. The 36% implied probability for 35°C or higher versus 28% for exactly 34°C stems from model divergences—ECMWF ensembles suggesting persistent subsident high-pressure warming and strong diurnal heating inland, tempered by sea breeze moderation and frontal timing that could cap peaks at 33°C (20.5%) or 32°C (15%). Fresh IMS updates and GFS runs expected today will clarify the balance between heat advection and cooling advection.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 17?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 17?
35°C or higher 36%
34°C 30%
33°C 23%
32°C 11%
НОВОЕ
$13,926 Объем
НОВОЕ
$13,926 Объем
17 апр. 2026 г.
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
2%
32°C
11%
33°C
23%
34°C
30%
35°C or higher
36%
35°C or higher 36%
34°C 30%
33°C 23%
32°C 11%
НОВОЕ
$13,926 Объем
НОВОЕ
$13,926 Объем
17 апр. 2026 г.
25°C or below
$1,286 Объем
<1%
26°C
$1,381 Объем
<1%
27°C
$1,481 Объем
<1%
28°C
$893 Объем
<1%
29°C
$885 Объем
1%
30°C
$895 Объем
2%
31°C
$1,267 Объем
2%
32°C
$1,044 Объем
11%
33°C
$1,067 Объем
23%
34°C
$1,238 Объем
30%
35°C or higher
$2,568 Объем
36%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in the tail end of an early-season heatwave gripping Israel, with April 15's verified high exceeding 35°C at Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv driving bets toward another scorcher on April 17 despite official Israel Meteorological Service guidance projecting coastal plain maxima of 21–29°C amid incoming clouds and possible thunderstorms. The 36% implied probability for 35°C or higher versus 28% for exactly 34°C stems from model divergences—ECMWF ensembles suggesting persistent subsident high-pressure warming and strong diurnal heating inland, tempered by sea breeze moderation and frontal timing that could cap peaks at 33°C (20.5%) or 32°C (15%). Fresh IMS updates and GFS runs expected today will clarify the balance between heat advection and cooling advection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Объем
$13,926Дата окончания
17 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in the tail end of an early-season heatwave gripping Israel, with April 15's verified high exceeding 35°C at Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv driving bets toward another scorcher on April 17 despite official Israel Meteorological Service guidance projecting coastal plain maxima of 21–29°C amid incoming clouds and possible thunderstorms. The 36% implied probability for 35°C or higher versus 28% for exactly 34°C stems from model divergences—ECMWF ensembles suggesting persistent subsident high-pressure warming and strong diurnal heating inland, tempered by sea breeze moderation and frontal timing that could cap peaks at 33°C (20.5%) or 32°C (15%). Fresh IMS updates and GFS runs expected today will clarify the balance between heat advection and cooling advection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$13,926Дата окончания
17 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in the tail end of an early-season heatwave gripping Israel, with April 15's verified high exceeding 35°C at Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv driving bets toward another scorcher on April 17 despite official Israel Meteorological Service guidance projecting coastal plain maxima of 21–29°C amid incoming clouds and possible thunderstorms. The 36% implied probability for 35°C or higher versus 28% for exactly 34°C stems from model divergences—ECMWF ensembles suggesting persistent subsident high-pressure warming and strong diurnal heating inland, tempered by sea breeze moderation and frontal timing that could cap peaks at 33°C (20.5%) or 32°C (15%). Fresh IMS updates and GFS runs expected today will clarify the balance between heat advection and cooling advection.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы