Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17 at 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies and mild westerly airflow, as confirmed by IMGW's weekly outlook indicating around 14°C in central Poland. The lead at 15°C (37.5% implied probability) stems from model means balancing slight divergences in predicted cloud cover—more sun could nudge toward 16°C (29.5%), while thicker overcast favors 14°C (20.5%)—amid low wind shear and stable high-pressure influence. April climatology supports this range, with historical highs averaging 13°C; final IMGW observations tomorrow will resolve uncertainties in peak heating timing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
15°C 38%
16°C 30%
14°C 21%
17°C or higher 11%
НОВОЕ
$13,230 Объем
НОВОЕ
$13,230 Объем
17 апр. 2026 г.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
21%
15°C
38%
16°C
30%
17°C or higher
11%
15°C 38%
16°C 30%
14°C 21%
17°C or higher 11%
НОВОЕ
$13,230 Объем
НОВОЕ
$13,230 Объем
17 апр. 2026 г.
7°C or below
$951 Объем
<1%
8°C
$1,338 Объем
<1%
9°C
$2,006 Объем
<1%
10°C
$2,421 Объем
<1%
11°C
$1,552 Объем
1%
12°C
$777 Объем
1%
13°C
$1,444 Объем
4%
14°C
$555 Объем
21%
15°C
$493 Объем
38%
16°C
$692 Объем
30%
17°C or higher
$1,041 Объем
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17 at 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies and mild westerly airflow, as confirmed by IMGW's weekly outlook indicating around 14°C in central Poland. The lead at 15°C (37.5% implied probability) stems from model means balancing slight divergences in predicted cloud cover—more sun could nudge toward 16°C (29.5%), while thicker overcast favors 14°C (20.5%)—amid low wind shear and stable high-pressure influence. April climatology supports this range, with historical highs averaging 13°C; final IMGW observations tomorrow will resolve uncertainties in peak heating timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ET
Объем
$13,230Дата окончания
17 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17 at 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies and mild westerly airflow, as confirmed by IMGW's weekly outlook indicating around 14°C in central Poland. The lead at 15°C (37.5% implied probability) stems from model means balancing slight divergences in predicted cloud cover—more sun could nudge toward 16°C (29.5%), while thicker overcast favors 14°C (20.5%)—amid low wind shear and stable high-pressure influence. April climatology supports this range, with historical highs averaging 13°C; final IMGW observations tomorrow will resolve uncertainties in peak heating timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$13,230Дата окончания
17 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17 at 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies and mild westerly airflow, as confirmed by IMGW's weekly outlook indicating around 14°C in central Poland. The lead at 15°C (37.5% implied probability) stems from model means balancing slight divergences in predicted cloud cover—more sun could nudge toward 16°C (29.5%), while thicker overcast favors 14°C (20.5%)—amid low wind shear and stable high-pressure influence. April climatology supports this range, with historical highs averaging 13°C; final IMGW observations tomorrow will resolve uncertainties in peak heating timing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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