Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts show a tight consensus for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17 around 15-16°C, reflecting trader sentiment with 15°C at 38.5% and 16°C at 29.5%, as a high-pressure ridge over Central Europe promotes settled, mild spring conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover. The narrow spread differentiates outcomes: warmer ensemble members assume clearer skies allowing better diurnal heating to 17°C or higher (10.5%), while cooler ones factor in thicker high clouds capping peaks at 14°C (21.5%). Historical April highs average 12-15°C, but current mild air mass supports the elevated trader-implied odds; new model runs expected overnight could refine this uncertainty ahead of official IMGW measurements.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
15°C 39%
16°C 30%
14°C 22%
17°C or higher 10%
НОВОЕ
$11,732 Объем
НОВОЕ
$11,732 Объем
17 апр. 2026 г.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
22%
15°C
39%
16°C
30%
17°C or higher
10%
15°C 39%
16°C 30%
14°C 22%
17°C or higher 10%
НОВОЕ
$11,732 Объем
НОВОЕ
$11,732 Объем
17 апр. 2026 г.
7°C or below
$873 Объем
<1%
8°C
$1,338 Объем
<1%
9°C
$2,006 Объем
<1%
10°C
$1,401 Объем
<1%
11°C
$1,533 Объем
1%
12°C
$705 Объем
1%
13°C
$1,408 Объем
4%
14°C
$517 Объем
22%
15°C
$472 Объем
39%
16°C
$665 Объем
30%
17°C or higher
$816 Объем
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts show a tight consensus for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17 around 15-16°C, reflecting trader sentiment with 15°C at 38.5% and 16°C at 29.5%, as a high-pressure ridge over Central Europe promotes settled, mild spring conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover. The narrow spread differentiates outcomes: warmer ensemble members assume clearer skies allowing better diurnal heating to 17°C or higher (10.5%), while cooler ones factor in thicker high clouds capping peaks at 14°C (21.5%). Historical April highs average 12-15°C, but current mild air mass supports the elevated trader-implied odds; new model runs expected overnight could refine this uncertainty ahead of official IMGW measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ET
Объем
$11,732Дата окончания
17 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts show a tight consensus for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17 around 15-16°C, reflecting trader sentiment with 15°C at 38.5% and 16°C at 29.5%, as a high-pressure ridge over Central Europe promotes settled, mild spring conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover. The narrow spread differentiates outcomes: warmer ensemble members assume clearer skies allowing better diurnal heating to 17°C or higher (10.5%), while cooler ones factor in thicker high clouds capping peaks at 14°C (21.5%). Historical April highs average 12-15°C, but current mild air mass supports the elevated trader-implied odds; new model runs expected overnight could refine this uncertainty ahead of official IMGW measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$11,732Дата окончания
17 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts show a tight consensus for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17 around 15-16°C, reflecting trader sentiment with 15°C at 38.5% and 16°C at 29.5%, as a high-pressure ridge over Central Europe promotes settled, mild spring conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover. The narrow spread differentiates outcomes: warmer ensemble members assume clearer skies allowing better diurnal heating to 17°C or higher (10.5%), while cooler ones factor in thicker high clouds capping peaks at 14°C (21.5%). Historical April highs average 12-15°C, but current mild air mass supports the elevated trader-implied odds; new model runs expected overnight could refine this uncertainty ahead of official IMGW measurements.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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