Florida's 4th congressional district maintains a clear Republican tilt heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean positioned as the presumptive nominee after winning 57.3% in 2024 and receiving endorsements that reinforce his standing. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's partisan composition—evidenced by Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024—and limited Democratic organizational presence. Multiple Democratic primary contenders face an August 18 vote, yet no significant polling shifts, fundraising surges, or redistricting changes have altered the trajectory. Traders assign the Republican Party an implied 79.5% probability, consistent with historical base rates for similar seats, while the Democratic Party holds 20.5% amid standard midterm uncertainty.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
$21,581 ปริมาณ
$21,581 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
80%
Democratic Party
21%
$21,581 ปริมาณ
$21,581 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$13,263 ปริมาณ
80%
Democratic Party
$8,318 ปริมาณ
21%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th congressional district maintains a clear Republican tilt heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean positioned as the presumptive nominee after winning 57.3% in 2024 and receiving endorsements that reinforce his standing. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's partisan composition—evidenced by Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024—and limited Democratic organizational presence. Multiple Democratic primary contenders face an August 18 vote, yet no significant polling shifts, fundraising surges, or redistricting changes have altered the trajectory. Traders assign the Republican Party an implied 79.5% probability, consistent with historical base rates for similar seats, while the Democratic Party holds 20.5% amid standard midterm uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,581วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th congressional district maintains a clear Republican tilt heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean positioned as the presumptive nominee after winning 57.3% in 2024 and receiving endorsements that reinforce his standing. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's partisan composition—evidenced by Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024—and limited Democratic organizational presence. Multiple Democratic primary contenders face an August 18 vote, yet no significant polling shifts, fundraising surges, or redistricting changes have altered the trajectory. Traders assign the Republican Party an implied 79.5% probability, consistent with historical base rates for similar seats, while the Democratic Party holds 20.5% amid standard midterm uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,581วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 4th congressional district maintains a clear Republican tilt heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean positioned as the presumptive nominee after winning 57.3% in 2024 and receiving endorsements that reinforce his standing. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's partisan composition—evidenced by Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024—and limited Democratic organizational presence. Multiple Democratic primary contenders face an August 18 vote, yet no significant polling shifts, fundraising surges, or redistricting changes have altered the trajectory. Traders assign the Republican Party an implied 79.5% probability, consistent with historical base rates for similar seats, while the Democratic Party holds 20.5% amid standard midterm uncertainty.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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