Despite a U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire taking effect on April 17 between Israel and Lebanon—following historic direct talks in Washington on April 14—traders price normalization odds low at 25.5% "Yes," reflecting entrenched barriers like Hezbollah's dominance in southern Lebanon and rejection of negotiations. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's push for talks centers on disarming the Iran-backed group and border demarcation, echoing unfulfilled 2024 ceasefire terms, while Foreign Minister Gideon Saar's calls for peace underscore Israel's interest but highlight Lebanon's weak central government unable to enforce disarmament. With Hezbollah launching rockets amid talks and only eight months until the December 31, 2026, deadline for official diplomatic ties, the wisdom of crowds sees slim prospects absent major de-escalation breakthroughs.