Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa (D) dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for California's 46th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and consistent large-margin victories, including 63.4% over David Pan (R) in 2024. With the June 2 top-two primary three weeks away, Correa holds massive fundraising superiority—$2.4 million cash on hand versus Pan's $4,000—amid a crowded Democratic primary field unlikely to derail him. Recent candidate questionnaires highlight local issues like immigration and housing without shifting dynamics. Scenarios to challenge include a primary upset, personal scandal, or strong national Republican midterm wave altering turnout in this Latino-majority Orange County seat.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-46 House Election Winner
CA-46 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$772 Обс.
93%
Republican Party
$8,635 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa (D) dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for California's 46th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and consistent large-margin victories, including 63.4% over David Pan (R) in 2024. With the June 2 top-two primary three weeks away, Correa holds massive fundraising superiority—$2.4 million cash on hand versus Pan's $4,000—amid a crowded Democratic primary field unlikely to derail him. Recent candidate questionnaires highlight local issues like immigration and housing without shifting dynamics. Scenarios to challenge include a primary upset, personal scandal, or strong national Republican midterm wave altering turnout in this Latino-majority Orange County seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$9,408Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa (D) dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for California's 46th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and consistent large-margin victories, including 63.4% over David Pan (R) in 2024. With the June 2 top-two primary three weeks away, Correa holds massive fundraising superiority—$2.4 million cash on hand versus Pan's $4,000—amid a crowded Democratic primary field unlikely to derail him. Recent candidate questionnaires highlight local issues like immigration and housing without shifting dynamics. Scenarios to challenge include a primary upset, personal scandal, or strong national Republican midterm wave altering turnout in this Latino-majority Orange County seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$9,408Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa (D) dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for California's 46th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and consistent large-margin victories, including 63.4% over David Pan (R) in 2024. With the June 2 top-two primary three weeks away, Correa holds massive fundraising superiority—$2.4 million cash on hand versus Pan's $4,000—amid a crowded Democratic primary field unlikely to derail him. Recent candidate questionnaires highlight local issues like immigration and housing without shifting dynamics. Scenarios to challenge include a primary upset, personal scandal, or strong national Republican midterm wave altering turnout in this Latino-majority Orange County seat.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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