Incumbent Democratic Representative Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote, while Republican Monique DeSpain advanced unopposed in substance after capturing 87 percent in her contest. Oregon's 4th district maintains a D+6 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Hoyle's 2024 victory. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. These structural factors, combined with Hoyle's fundraising edge and the absence of competitive primary turbulence, underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome. A national political shift, late-breaking scandal, or sharp turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability given historical patterns and current positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOR-04 House Election Winner
OR-04 House Election Winner
$21,730 Обс.
$21,730 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$21,730 Обс.
$21,730 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,759 Обс.
94%
Republican Party
$6,972 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote, while Republican Monique DeSpain advanced unopposed in substance after capturing 87 percent in her contest. Oregon's 4th district maintains a D+6 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Hoyle's 2024 victory. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. These structural factors, combined with Hoyle's fundraising edge and the absence of competitive primary turbulence, underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome. A national political shift, late-breaking scandal, or sharp turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability given historical patterns and current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$21,730Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote, while Republican Monique DeSpain advanced unopposed in substance after capturing 87 percent in her contest. Oregon's 4th district maintains a D+6 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Hoyle's 2024 victory. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. These structural factors, combined with Hoyle's fundraising edge and the absence of competitive primary turbulence, underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome. A national political shift, late-breaking scandal, or sharp turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability given historical patterns and current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$21,730Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote, while Republican Monique DeSpain advanced unopposed in substance after capturing 87 percent in her contest. Oregon's 4th district maintains a D+6 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Hoyle's 2024 victory. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. These structural factors, combined with Hoyle's fundraising edge and the absence of competitive primary turbulence, underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome. A national political shift, late-breaking scandal, or sharp turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability given historical patterns and current positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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