Short-term forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a high-pressure system maintaining sunny, dry conditions over central Anatolia through August 25, with light winds limiting mixing and supporting afternoon maxima near 32–34°C. This aligns with the late-August seasonal decline from peak July heat, where historical averages for Ankara hover around 31–32°C, though recent model runs show minor spread due to subtle variations in steering flow. The market-implied probabilities—led by 31°C at 43.5% and 32°C at 33%—reflect trader weighting of ensemble uncertainty and the narrow window before resolution, while lower odds for 33°C and above capture potential for brief warming if subsidence strengthens. Updated runs from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service will refine the exact peak ahead of the daily observation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月25日安卡拉的最高溫度?
31°C 44%
32°C 31%
30°C 21%
29°C 6%
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
6%
30°C
18%
31°C
44%
32°C
31%
33°C
5%
34°C
6%
35°C
6%
36°C or higher
2%
31°C 44%
32°C 31%
30°C 21%
29°C 6%
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
6%
30°C
18%
31°C
44%
32°C
31%
33°C
5%
34°C
6%
35°C
6%
36°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Short-term forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a high-pressure system maintaining sunny, dry conditions over central Anatolia through August 25, with light winds limiting mixing and supporting afternoon maxima near 32–34°C. This aligns with the late-August seasonal decline from peak July heat, where historical averages for Ankara hover around 31–32°C, though recent model runs show minor spread due to subtle variations in steering flow. The market-implied probabilities—led by 31°C at 43.5% and 32°C at 33%—reflect trader weighting of ensemble uncertainty and the narrow window before resolution, while lower odds for 33°C and above capture potential for brief warming if subsidence strengthens. Updated runs from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service will refine the exact peak ahead of the daily observation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions