Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 11–16°C due to divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble means showing spreads of 3–5°C. Recent model runs, updated within the last 24 hours, highlight sensitivity to upper-air patterns and jet stream positioning, which could drive warmer southerly advection or cooler northerly flows amid changeable spring conditions slightly above the 12°C mid-April climatological average. Yandex and Gismeteo forecasts center on 10–13°C highs under partly cloudy skies with possible showers, but cloud cover variability and frontal timing remain key differentiators. New ensemble outputs every 6–12 hours from NOAA and ECMWF could sharpen odds before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Moscow on April 17?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 17?
13°C 32%
14°C 23%
12°C 21%
11°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
7°C or below
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
4%
10°C
5%
11°C
16%
12°C
21%
13°C
24%
14°C
23%
15°C
14%
16°C
8%
17°C or higher
8%
13°C 32%
14°C 23%
12°C 21%
11°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
7°C or below
$426 交易量
1%
8°C
$205 交易量
2%
9°C
$0 交易量
4%
10°C
$0 交易量
5%
11°C
$29 交易量
16%
12°C
$5 交易量
21%
13°C
$10 交易量
24%
14°C
$0 交易量
23%
15°C
$20 交易量
14%
16°C
$89 交易量
8%
17°C or higher
$71 交易量
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 11–16°C due to divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble means showing spreads of 3–5°C. Recent model runs, updated within the last 24 hours, highlight sensitivity to upper-air patterns and jet stream positioning, which could drive warmer southerly advection or cooler northerly flows amid changeable spring conditions slightly above the 12°C mid-April climatological average. Yandex and Gismeteo forecasts center on 10–13°C highs under partly cloudy skies with possible showers, but cloud cover variability and frontal timing remain key differentiators. New ensemble outputs every 6–12 hours from NOAA and ECMWF could sharpen odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
交易量
$828結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 11–16°C due to divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble means showing spreads of 3–5°C. Recent model runs, updated within the last 24 hours, highlight sensitivity to upper-air patterns and jet stream positioning, which could drive warmer southerly advection or cooler northerly flows amid changeable spring conditions slightly above the 12°C mid-April climatological average. Yandex and Gismeteo forecasts center on 10–13°C highs under partly cloudy skies with possible showers, but cloud cover variability and frontal timing remain key differentiators. New ensemble outputs every 6–12 hours from NOAA and ECMWF could sharpen odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$828結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 11–16°C due to divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble means showing spreads of 3–5°C. Recent model runs, updated within the last 24 hours, highlight sensitivity to upper-air patterns and jet stream positioning, which could drive warmer southerly advection or cooler northerly flows amid changeable spring conditions slightly above the 12°C mid-April climatological average. Yandex and Gismeteo forecasts center on 10–13°C highs under partly cloudy skies with possible showers, but cloud cover variability and frontal timing remain key differentiators. New ensemble outputs every 6–12 hours from NOAA and ECMWF could sharpen odds before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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