Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 32°C high in Taipei on April 17 at 50% implied probability, driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime peaks around 31–32°C under a persistent warm, humid air mass fueled by above-average sea surface temperatures. Recent developments include summer-like highs of 31–33°C across Taiwan this week, including 33°C on April 11, with the CWA's one-month outlook confirming above-normal mean temperatures through April 17 despite a passing weather front bringing occasional northern showers that could cap intensities. Equal 25.5% odds for 24°C or below or 34°C+ reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and mixing heights, with updated CWA advisories and model runs expected by April 16 to sharpen resolution criteria at Taipei Songshan Airport station. Historical April averages hover near 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth positioning 32°C as the leading outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Taipei on April 17?
Highest temperature in Taipei on April 17?
28°C 27%
29°C 20%
30°C 17%
31°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
24°C or below
4%
25°C
5%
26°C
7%
27°C
10%
28°C
21%
29°C
20%
30°C
17%
31°C
13%
32°C
16%
33°C
8%
34°C or higher
5%
28°C 27%
29°C 20%
30°C 17%
31°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
24°C or below
$169 交易量
4%
25°C
$0 交易量
5%
26°C
$46 交易量
7%
27°C
$16 交易量
10%
28°C
$5 交易量
21%
29°C
$0 交易量
20%
30°C
$26 交易量
17%
31°C
$89 交易量
13%
32°C
$40 交易量
16%
33°C
$73 交易量
8%
34°C or higher
$58 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 32°C high in Taipei on April 17 at 50% implied probability, driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime peaks around 31–32°C under a persistent warm, humid air mass fueled by above-average sea surface temperatures. Recent developments include summer-like highs of 31–33°C across Taiwan this week, including 33°C on April 11, with the CWA's one-month outlook confirming above-normal mean temperatures through April 17 despite a passing weather front bringing occasional northern showers that could cap intensities. Equal 25.5% odds for 24°C or below or 34°C+ reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and mixing heights, with updated CWA advisories and model runs expected by April 16 to sharpen resolution criteria at Taipei Songshan Airport station. Historical April averages hover near 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth positioning 32°C as the leading outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$412結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Apr 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 32°C high in Taipei on April 17 at 50% implied probability, driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime peaks around 31–32°C under a persistent warm, humid air mass fueled by above-average sea surface temperatures. Recent developments include summer-like highs of 31–33°C across Taiwan this week, including 33°C on April 11, with the CWA's one-month outlook confirming above-normal mean temperatures through April 17 despite a passing weather front bringing occasional northern showers that could cap intensities. Equal 25.5% odds for 24°C or below or 34°C+ reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and mixing heights, with updated CWA advisories and model runs expected by April 16 to sharpen resolution criteria at Taipei Songshan Airport station. Historical April averages hover near 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth positioning 32°C as the leading outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$412結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Apr 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 32°C high in Taipei on April 17 at 50% implied probability, driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime peaks around 31–32°C under a persistent warm, humid air mass fueled by above-average sea surface temperatures. Recent developments include summer-like highs of 31–33°C across Taiwan this week, including 33°C on April 11, with the CWA's one-month outlook confirming above-normal mean temperatures through April 17 despite a passing weather front bringing occasional northern showers that could cap intensities. Equal 25.5% odds for 24°C or below or 34°C+ reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and mixing heights, with updated CWA advisories and model runs expected by April 16 to sharpen resolution criteria at Taipei Songshan Airport station. Historical April averages hover near 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth positioning 32°C as the leading outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions