Latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means project Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport on April 15 around 29-30°C under a strengthening subtropical ridge driving persistent southerly winds and mostly clear skies, fueling trader consensus with 35.5% implied probability for 30°C slightly edging 33% for 29°C. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon sea breeze strength and cumulus cloud development, which could temper peaks below 30°C or allow 31°C (15%) if insolation dominates; urban heat island effects at the airport site add microscale variability. Mid-April climatological highs average 27°C, but recent warm advection—evident in April 14's projected 30°C—has boosted expectations. Updated model runs and real-time observations today will refine uncertainties before tomorrow's peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?
29°C 39%
30°C 35%
31°C 15%
28°C 12.0%
$37,582 交易量
$37,582 交易量
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
12%
29°C
34%
30°C
35%
31°C
15%
32°C or higher
2%
29°C 39%
30°C 35%
31°C 15%
28°C 12.0%
$37,582 交易量
$37,582 交易量
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
12%
29°C
34%
30°C
35%
31°C
15%
32°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means project Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport on April 15 around 29-30°C under a strengthening subtropical ridge driving persistent southerly winds and mostly clear skies, fueling trader consensus with 35.5% implied probability for 30°C slightly edging 33% for 29°C. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon sea breeze strength and cumulus cloud development, which could temper peaks below 30°C or allow 31°C (15%) if insolation dominates; urban heat island effects at the airport site add microscale variability. Mid-April climatological highs average 27°C, but recent warm advection—evident in April 14's projected 30°C—has boosted expectations. Updated model runs and real-time observations today will refine uncertainties before tomorrow's peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions