Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 23°C (35% implied probability), 25°C or higher (28%), and 24°C (22%), reflecting divergent Korea Meteorological Administration ensemble forecasts and global models like GFS and ECMWF for Busan on April 15 amid an unseasonal high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula. This system has driven recent daytime highs 5–7°C above the 18°C April climatological average, as seen in April 11–14 readings nearing 23°C at Gimhae International Airport, Busan's official station, fueled by subsiding air, light southerly winds, and warm advection from elevated sea surface temperatures offshore. Key differentiators include morning cloud remnants from a departing front potentially capping peaks at 23°C via reduced insolation, versus rapid diurnal heating under clearing skies pushing toward 25°C; low precipitation risk (under 25%) favors the warmer cluster. Monitor KMA's evening update and early April 15 observations for resolution shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Busan on April 15?
Highest temperature in Busan on April 15?
23°C 36.2%
25°C or higher 27.3%
24°C 22.4%
22°C 11%
$19,296 交易量
$19,296 交易量
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
8%
22°C
11%
23°C
36%
24°C
22%
25°C or higher
27%
23°C 36.2%
25°C or higher 27.3%
24°C 22.4%
22°C 11%
$19,296 交易量
$19,296 交易量
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
8%
22°C
11%
23°C
36%
24°C
22%
25°C or higher
27%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 13, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 23°C (35% implied probability), 25°C or higher (28%), and 24°C (22%), reflecting divergent Korea Meteorological Administration ensemble forecasts and global models like GFS and ECMWF for Busan on April 15 amid an unseasonal high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula. This system has driven recent daytime highs 5–7°C above the 18°C April climatological average, as seen in April 11–14 readings nearing 23°C at Gimhae International Airport, Busan's official station, fueled by subsiding air, light southerly winds, and warm advection from elevated sea surface temperatures offshore. Key differentiators include morning cloud remnants from a departing front potentially capping peaks at 23°C via reduced insolation, versus rapid diurnal heating under clearing skies pushing toward 25°C; low precipitation risk (under 25%) favors the warmer cluster. Monitor KMA's evening update and early April 15 observations for resolution shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions