Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature at LaGuardia Airport on April 14 to reach 71°F or below, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles showing peak highs clustering in the upper 60s to low 70s amid a building upper-level ridge promoting above-normal warmth after early April's cooler spell. Recent developments include a dry weekend setup with southwesterly flow boosting temperatures into the 60s on April 12-13, but potential afternoon cloudiness or a weak frontal boundary could cap peaks below 72°F, as historical April 14 normals hover near 60°F. Model spread highlights uncertainty in peak heating; watch NWS updates and 00Z model runs Sunday for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於紐約市4月14日的最高溫度?
紐約市4月14日的最高溫度?
78-79°F 26%
82-83華氏度 26%
74-75°F 14%
86-87°F 12%
71°F或以下
8%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
14%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
28%
82-83華氏度
16%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
12%
88-89°F
10%
華氏90度或以上
1%
78-79°F 26%
82-83華氏度 26%
74-75°F 14%
86-87°F 12%
71°F或以下
8%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
14%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
28%
82-83華氏度
16%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
12%
88-89°F
10%
華氏90度或以上
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 12, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature at LaGuardia Airport on April 14 to reach 71°F or below, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles showing peak highs clustering in the upper 60s to low 70s amid a building upper-level ridge promoting above-normal warmth after early April's cooler spell. Recent developments include a dry weekend setup with southwesterly flow boosting temperatures into the 60s on April 12-13, but potential afternoon cloudiness or a weak frontal boundary could cap peaks below 72°F, as historical April 14 normals hover near 60°F. Model spread highlights uncertainty in peak heating; watch NWS updates and 00Z model runs Sunday for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions